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FREEDOM SHOCK BETA 100/100GUILD SHOCK BETA 0/100ROCKET CLIFF +54.9pp @ CLTV 85MR. COOPER CLIFF +1.7ppDENIAL→DELINQUENCY r=+0.618 · 2-YR LEADRECESSION PARADOX r=−0.696SLOOS vs REALITY r=−0.150SAME PROFILE 26.7% vs 91.2% DENIALloanDepot↔NewRez SIMILARITY 94/100310,592 FHA RECORDS · CFPB HMDAFREEDOM SHOCK BETA 100/100GUILD SHOCK BETA 0/100ROCKET CLIFF +54.9pp @ CLTV 85MR. COOPER CLIFF +1.7ppDENIAL→DELINQUENCY r=+0.618 · 2-YR LEADRECESSION PARADOX r=−0.696SLOOS vs REALITY r=−0.150SAME PROFILE 26.7% vs 91.2% DENIALloanDepot↔NewRez SIMILARITY 94/100310,592 FHA RECORDS · CFPB HMDA
FRC Intelligence · CFPB HMDA 2025

An FHA borrower was denied
every 2 minutes today.

—
denied since Jan 1, 2025 · counting live · Source: CFPB HMDA

Same federal guidelines. Same country.
One lender denies 6.37% — another 53.27%.

The difference is not the borrower.
It's the lender.

Would your file pass elsewhere? →
Free · 60 seconds · no SSN required
or watch the full clock →
LIVE · One FHA application is denied every 2 minutes — next in 2:00
📕 NEW — The Black Hole Report 2025: every lender’s 97%+ denial zone, mapped — and the routes out. $49 →
● CLIMATE 54 · ⚖ THE DENIAL SUITE: The Vintage (was it the year?) · The Verdict (was it the door?) · The Meter (what did the market do?) · Case File $39
Questions nobody else can answer
🗺️
Denial Rates by Metro NEW
320 metros. In Cleveland the doors run 6.3% to 80.1% — inside one city.
🧱
The Incomplete Wall NEW
At two lenders, "incomplete" is 3 of 4 denials. Market median: 1.2%.
🏗️
The Builder's Door NEW
When the builder owns the lender, the house is never the problem. You are.
📍
Same Lender, Different City NEW
loanDepot: 13.6% in Boise, 58.4% in Detroit. Same brand, same year.
⚡
Shock Beta
When rates moved, which desks slammed shut — and which barely blinked?
🔗
Statistical Twins
If your lender vanished tomorrow, who reads files exactly like them?
📊
3D Decision Surface
Your DTI sits on a cliff. Rotate the terrain and find the edge.
📐
The Findings
Today's denials predict tomorrow's defaults — two years out (r=0.618).
📖
Mortgage Dictionary
Cliffs, genes, black holes — 72 terms the industry never defined.
The Data Room
the complete 2025 federal record, indexed
Lenders
All 100 lenders, ranked44× spread
Why each lender says nothe DNA
Does the soft door cost more?r = −0.25
Geography
All 52 states, ranked2× spread
The door map, 15 biggest marketsstate × lender
The small-loan penalty46.9%
Proof
Five myths vs. the record5/5 fail
AI vs. the data: the receiptarchived
Direct answers, citable23
Denied? Start here: The Denial Map · Your file → your year → today’s climate — a data point, not a verdict.
The wall of 100 doors

Every large FHA lender in America, colored by how often it says no.

One federal program. One year. 1,217,297 decisions. Hover a door — or find yours.

1.8%
78.7% denial rate
Hover any door to see its record · click to open its profile

CFPB HMDA 2025 · decisioned applications (actions 1,2,3) · rates partly reflect applicant mix · historical observation, not a prediction — see the full table →

How the system works

Three variables decide an FHA application before anyone reads your character. All three are measurable in the public federal record — and one of them dwarfs the others.

Variable 01 · Where you apply
14.8% → 29.0%
Utah → Hawaii · 2× by state
Same loan, same profile, different state. Your zip code is underwriting you before anyone opens the file.
State map →
Variable 02 · Which door — the big one
1.8% → 78.7%
Flat Branch → AmeriSave · 44× by lender
The 100 largest FHA lenders, one federal program, one year. Which door you knock on moves your odds more than any other variable measured here.
All 100 lenders →
Variable 03 · And it holds
8 years
2018–2025 · every federal filing
The hierarchy of doors barely moves year to year. This is structure, not noise — which is why last year's record is usable this year.
The research →
How to use it

The Denial Map™

Four steps, in order, if you have been denied — or want to avoid it.

01
Decode
Get the stated reason in writing — it is your right under federal law — then read it against that lender's own reason distribution. “Incomplete” means something very different at a door where it is 1.2% of denials than at one where it is 73.5%.
Reason fingerprints →
02
Year
Place the denial in its credit climate. A file refused in a tight year is not the same file in a loose one, and the record shows which year you were in.
The climate index →
03
Door
Compare lenders on observed outcomes, not advertising — nationally, in your metro, and by loan size. This is where the 44× lives.
Your metro's doors →
04
Reapply
Take the same file to a door whose record fits it. Consider applying to a second lender in parallel: if another door approves substantially the same file, you have learned the denial was about the door.
The full framework →
Open The Denial Map →
Free · no sign-up · no approval predictions
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✓ Denial Clock
✓ State Map
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✓ Verdict re-trial
✓ Vintage year-rank
✓ Meter market clock
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One-time: Black Hole Report $49 · Verdict Case File $39 · Condo Guide $9.99
▵ this sky is a year of FHA applications · the red ones don't make it →