One number for the only question that matters to a borrower: how hard is it to get approved right now? A composite of FHA denial rates, Fed loan-officer surveys (SLOOS), mortgage-Treasury spreads, and home-price momentum — from federal data, no surveys of opinion, no vendor money.
| Year | Climate | Regime |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 49.5 | NEUTRAL |
| 2019 | 42.4 | ACCOMMODATIVE |
| 2020 | 50.9 | NEUTRAL |
| 2021 | 21.1 | ACCOMMODATIVE |
| 2022 | 61.7 | TIGHTENING |
| 2023 | 66.4 | RESTRICTIVE |
| 2024 | 54.6 | NEUTRAL |
| 2025 | 54.3 | NEUTRAL |
The story in one line: 2021 was the loosest credit year of the era (21); 2023 the tightest (66); 2025 settled to neutral (54). A denial is judged against the year it happened in — judge yours →
Cite freely as: “FRC Denial Climate Index (FinanceRateCalc), a composite of federal HMDA, SLOOS, rate-spread and FHFA HPI data.” Machine-readable series: citable.json · method: methodology · interviews & custom cuts: [email protected] (built and answered by a 23-year banking professional).
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