The Report · 11 pages · PDF · 2025 HMDA

The Mortgage Black Hole Report

Every major FHA lender has a zone where applications simply do not survive — 97%+ denial, cell after cell. We mapped all six from 310,592 loan-level records. And then we mapped the way out.

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This is a real page from the report

Rocket Mortgage’s 2025 decision surface. The gold-ringed cells are the black hole: DTI 48–50 × CLTV 90–95, 97.6% denial across 84 applications. Every lender chapter looks like this — the full grid, the hole, and the numbers.

CLTV\DTI3637383940414243444546474849
97+
95-96
90-949496
85-8950
80-842426272217211525113528
70-791311121313111110415129108
Denial rate %, FHA 2025. – = fewer than 50 applications (excluded from all statistics). Source: CFPB HMDA loan-level dataset.

The part no one else publishes: the way out

For every black hole, the report shows how the same DTI × CLTV zone was treated by the other five lenders. In Rocket’s hole, Mr. Cooper’s 2025 denial rate was 7.8%. Same borrowers on paper. Different gravity. The report closes with a full 6×6 cross-matrix — every hole, every lender, one page.

What’s inside

6 lender chaptersRocket, PennyMac, Freedom, CrossCountry, Guild, Mr. Cooper — full color-coded decision surface + black hole coordinates each.
Escape-route tablesEach hole re-priced at the five other lenders, sorted — historical observation, clearly sourced.
The 6×6 cross-matrixOne page that shows whether a hole belongs to the zone — or to the lender.
Full methodologyMin-cell n=50, fair-lending exclusions, limitations, citation format. Nothing hidden.
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Built by a 23-year credit banker. Every number traceable to public CFPB data.

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Explore free first: the interactive 3D surfaces behind this report

Informational purposes only — historical HMDA patterns, not financial advice and not a prediction for any individual application. Consult a licensed mortgage professional. FRC analyses exclude all protected-class variables.

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