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FRC Intelligence · The 2026 Edition

Buying a home has two walls.
Everyone measures the first. We measured the second.

The salary wall is famous: every year, a dozen sites publish "the salary you need to buy a home in every state." The second wall is invisible in those lists — whether the loan actually gets approved. This table shows both, side by side: the estimated salary needed for a median home, and the observed FHA denial rates from all 1,217,297 decisioned applications in the 2025 federal record.

The finding the salary lists hide: the two walls stack. In the 10 states requiring the highest salaries, 43.2% of small FHA applications (under $150K) were denied in 2025 — against 35.1% in the 10 cheapest states. Where houses cost the most, the cheapest route in is also the most likely to be refused: the small-loan penalty peaks at 3.19× in Idaho, and small-loan denial reaches 53.8% in New Hampshire. Two Americas, one federal program.
StateMedian priceSalary neededFHA denial rateSmall-loan denialSmall-loan penalty
Hawaii$820,000$162,23029.0%
California$780,000$154,32021.0%44.7%2.26×
Massachusetts$580,000$114,84022.3%52.8%2.60×
Washington$560,000$110,88018.1%40.9%2.51×
Colorado$540,000$106,92021.0%37.6%1.91×
New Jersey$520,000$102,96024.5%44.0%1.96×
New York$480,000$95,04024.9%34.2%1.47×
Oregon$430,000$85,14017.7%41.1%2.63×
Rhode Island$420,000$83,16021.5%45.9%2.38×
Utah$420,000$83,16014.8%37.5%2.72×
New Hampshire$410,000$81,18023.2%53.8%2.74×
Maryland$390,000$77,22024.1%43.1%1.99×
Idaho$385,000$76,23014.8%38.3%3.19×
Connecticut$380,000$75,24026.2%46.8%2.04×
Florida$380,000$75,24024.3%43.6%1.96×
Montana$380,000$75,24021.2%43.3%2.58×
Nevada$380,000$75,24017.3%36.0%2.32×
Virginia$370,000$73,26021.6%37.9%2.02×
Arizona$360,000$71,28018.4%37.5%2.33×
Vermont$350,000$69,30026.9%41.9%1.94×
Maine$350,000$69,30023.8%48.9%2.67×
Delaware$340,000$67,32024.8%45.9%2.06×
Alaska$340,000$67,32018.3%
Minnesota$320,000$63,36021.9%36.2%1.96×
Wyoming$320,000$63,36017.5%34.4%2.47×
Texas$310,000$61,38015.7%25.5%1.71×
North Carolina$300,000$59,40021.6%38.8%2.22×
Georgia$290,000$57,42024.6%42.8%2.06×
Tennessee$290,000$57,42020.3%37.1%2.35×
New Mexico$280,000$55,44022.0%42.0%2.41×
South Carolina$280,000$55,44021.0%37.6%2.11×
Illinois$260,000$51,48027.4%34.5%1.47×
Wisconsin$250,000$49,50026.3%43.8%2.21×
Pennsylvania$250,000$49,50025.3%37.5%1.91×
South Dakota$250,000$49,50020.8%39.9%2.66×
North Dakota$240,000$47,52017.7%34.4%2.55×
Michigan$230,000$45,54027.2%35.2%1.61×
Nebraska$230,000$45,54020.5%36.6%2.46×
Indiana$220,000$43,56022.4%32.6%1.84×
Missouri$220,000$43,56020.1%32.2%2.24×
Iowa$210,000$41,58024.9%33.2%1.63×
Ohio$210,000$41,58022.9%32.2%1.73×
Kansas$210,000$41,58022.6%33.0%2.04×
Alabama$200,000$39,60022.8%38.6%2.31×
Kentucky$200,000$39,60021.3%33.4%2.15×
Louisiana$190,000$37,62024.5%38.3%2.20×
Oklahoma$190,000$37,62020.0%34.3%2.30×
Arkansas$185,000$36,63021.0%33.1%2.27×
Mississippi$175,000$34,65024.8%41.7%2.56×
West Virginia$145,000$28,71023.6%33.7%2.15×

Rows in orange mark states where a small FHA application was at least 2.5× likelier to be denied than a large one. "Small" = under $150K; penalty = small-loan denial rate ÷ large-loan ($250K+) denial rate; state cells require minimum application counts. Salary estimates assume standard affordability ratios on the state's median price and are approximations; denial figures are observed federal record, not estimates.

The small-loan penalty, in full → Denial rates by lender → The classic salary table →