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FRC Research · The 2026 Edition

Buying a home has two walls.
Everyone measures the first. We measured the second.

The salary wall is famous: every year, a dozen sites publish "the salary you need to buy a home in every state." The second wall is invisible in those lists — whether the loan actually gets approved. This table shows both, side by side: the estimated salary needed for a median home, and the observed FHA denial rates from all 1,187,606 decisioned applications in the 2025 federal record.

The finding the salary lists hide: the two walls stack. In the 10 states requiring the highest salaries, 42.1% of small FHA applications (under $150K) were denied in 2025 — against 35.1% in the 10 cheapest states. Where houses cost the most, the cheapest route in is also the most likely to be refused: the small-loan penalty peaks at 4.45× in Idaho, and small-loan denial reaches 53.8% in New Hampshire. Two Americas, one federal program.
StateMedian priceSalary neededFHA denial rateSmall-loan denialSmall-loan penalty
Hawaii$820,000$213,10031.4%
California$780,000$202,70021.0%44.7%2.26×
Massachusetts$580,000$150,70022.3%52.8%2.60×
Washington$560,000$145,50018.1%40.9%2.51×
Colorado$540,000$140,30021.0%37.6%1.91×
New Jersey$520,000$135,10024.5%44.0%1.96×
New York$480,000$124,70024.9%34.2%1.47×
Oregon$430,000$111,70017.7%41.1%2.63×
Rhode Island$420,000$109,10021.5%45.9%2.38×
Utah$420,000$109,10015.0%37.5%2.72×
New Hampshire$410,000$106,50023.2%53.8%2.74×
Maryland$390,000$101,30024.1%43.1%1.99×
Idaho$385,000$100,00015.0%38.3%4.45×
Connecticut$380,000$98,70026.2%46.8%2.04×
Florida$380,000$98,70024.3%43.6%1.96×
Montana$380,000$98,70021.2%43.3%2.58×
Nevada$380,000$98,70017.3%36.0%2.32×
Virginia$370,000$96,10021.6%37.9%2.02×
Arizona$360,000$93,50018.4%37.5%2.33×
Vermont$350,000$90,90026.9%41.9%1.94×
Maine$350,000$90,90023.8%48.9%2.67×
Delaware$340,000$88,30024.8%45.9%2.06×
Alaska$340,000$88,30018.3%
Minnesota$320,000$83,10021.9%36.2%1.96×
Wyoming$320,000$83,10017.5%34.4%2.47×
Texas$310,000$80,50015.7%25.5%1.71×
North Carolina$300,000$77,90021.6%38.8%2.22×
Georgia$290,000$75,30024.6%42.8%2.06×
Tennessee$290,000$75,30020.3%37.1%2.35×
New Mexico$280,000$72,80022.0%42.0%2.41×
South Carolina$280,000$72,80021.0%37.6%2.11×
Illinois$260,000$67,60027.4%34.5%1.47×
Wisconsin$250,000$65,00026.4%43.8%2.21×
Pennsylvania$250,000$65,00025.3%37.5%1.91×
South Dakota$250,000$65,00020.8%39.9%2.66×
North Dakota$240,000$62,40017.7%34.4%2.55×
Michigan$230,000$59,80027.2%35.2%1.61×
Nebraska$230,000$59,80020.5%36.6%2.46×
Indiana$220,000$57,20022.4%32.6%1.84×
Missouri$220,000$57,20020.1%32.2%2.24×
Iowa$210,000$54,60024.9%33.2%1.63×
Ohio$210,000$54,60022.9%32.2%1.73×
Kansas$210,000$54,60022.6%33.0%2.04×
Alabama$200,000$52,00022.8%38.6%2.31×
Kentucky$200,000$52,00021.3%33.4%2.15×
Louisiana$190,000$49,40024.5%38.3%2.20×
Oklahoma$190,000$49,40020.0%34.3%2.30×
Arkansas$185,000$48,10021.0%33.1%2.27×
Mississippi$175,000$45,50024.8%41.7%2.56×
West Virginia$145,000$37,70023.6%33.7%2.15×

Rows in orange mark states where a small FHA application was at least 2.5× likelier to be denied than a large one. "Small" = under $150K; penalty = small-loan denial rate ÷ large-loan ($250K+) denial rate; state cells require minimum application counts. Salary estimates: 30-year loan at 6.7%, 20% down, property tax + insurance estimated at 1.6% of price annually, housing cost capped at 30% of gross income, applied to the state median price in our dataset — approximations for comparison, not underwriting thresholds. Denial figures are the observed federal record, not estimates.

The small-loan penalty, in full → Denial rates by lender → The classic salary table →
Related research

The small-loan penalty measured here is consistent with earlier findings from the Urban Institute, whose work on denial measurement documents that low-balance applications face materially higher denial rates than larger ones even after accounting for borrower credit profiles (see A Better Measure of Mortgage Application Denial Rates and related Housing Finance Policy Center work). FRC's contribution is the current, FHA-specific, lender- and metro-level resolution of that pattern from the complete 2025 record. Urban Institute research →

Open data for this table (CC BY 4.0): state denial rates with loan-size splits →

First published 2026-07-22 by FinanceRateCalc · free to reuse with attribution (CC BY 4.0) · license & publication record

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FinanceRateCalc · Independent analysis of the complete federal HMDA record · Measured, not assumed. · No lender or AI vendor funds or previews this work.