FRC Research · 3D Decision Surface

See the cliff before
you walk off it.

Every lender's denial probability mapped across DTI and CLTV. The cliffs, the black holes, the safe zones — all visible. Rotate, zoom, hover. Source: CFPB HMDA 2025, 310K FHA records.

Primary Lender
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⚠️ CLTV-85 Cliff Detected

You're looking at the terrain. Now find your spot on it.

Enter your DTI and the lender that denied you — see exactly where your file lands on the cliff, and which door has a ramp instead.

Find my spot on the cliff — free, 60 sec →
Already denied? Run the Verdict on that exact door →
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Fair Lending Note: FRC analyses exclude all protected-class variables present in HMDA (race, ethnicity, sex, age). We model lender behavior across financial variables only — DTI, CLTV, loan type, property type, and outcome. We measure how institutions decide, not who applies.
How to cite
FRC Research (2026). Lender Response Surfaces: DTI × CLTV Denial Probability Maps from 1,187,606 HMDA Records. FinanceRateCalc. https://financeratecalc.com/lender-response-surface.html
The Report · PDF
The Mortgage Black Hole Report 2025

Every major FHA lender's 97%+ denial zone, mapped cell by cell — plus how the same zone is treated by five other lenders. 11 pages, 1,187,606 records, full methodology.

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Source: CFPB HMDA 2025 Public Dataset · FHA purchase and refinance originations and denials · 1,187,606 records · DTI bands 36–49% · CLTV bands 70–97%+ · Cells with fewer than 30 observations shown as N/A. Denial rates reflect historical HMDA patterns — not current lender policy. For educational purposes only. Not financial advice. All-cash purchases excluded from HMDA.

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The part almost nobody publishes free

Prices and rates are widely reported. Whether a lender says yes is not. In the complete 2025 federal record, denial rates across the 100 largest FHA lenders ran from 1.8% to 78.7% — same programme, same year.

And it is not simply who applies where: standardizing on state, loan amount, income, debt-to-income and loan-to-value, applicant mix explains only a 2.7× range in expected outcomes.

Which lenders approve most → Your metro → Denied? →

CFPB HMDA 2025, computed by FinanceRateCalc. Covers the highest-volume lenders published per market, not all lenders. Historical observations, not predictions. CC BY 4.0, not independently reproduced.

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FinanceRateCalc · Independent analysis of the complete federal HMDA record · Measured, not assumed. · No lender or AI vendor funds or previews this work.