FRC Research · CFPB HMDA 2025
An FHA borrower was denied
every 2 minutes today.
FHA loans are US home loans insured by the federal government, used mostly by first-time and lower-down-payment buyers. Every lender's FHA decisions are reported to the government under HMDA; this site reads that public record and shows how often each lender said no. Historical counts, not predictions.
Use the data
189 claim passports, 5 rule tables, API
Every figure with its universe, period, sha256 and use contract. CC BY 4.0.
Cite or check a sentence
The sentence, the receipt, the attribution
Copy a finding as text, Markdown or BibTeX; a reader verifies the receipt later.
Connect an agent
Three lines for Claude Code, Cursor, Codex
MCP server, no auth; missing conditions are asked for, never guessed.
Where these numbers come from, and how to check them
Method is published, not proprietary. Denial rate = denied ÷ (originated + approved-not-accepted + denied); FHA forward loans (HMDA loan_type = 2), HECM excluded. Every figure carries a machine-readable claim passport with the source hash.
Peer-visible method paper (DOI)
Eight-year panel (DOI)
Measurement boundaries (SSRN)
Claim contract (SSRN)
Full methodology
Claim passports with hashes
How our tables reconcile
Public corrections log
What we tested and found nothing
Independent status, stated plainly: this is an independent re-aggregation of the public CFPB HMDA record, not an official CFPB or FFIEC output, and no figure here has yet been independently reproduced. The underlying data is free under CC BY 4.0 so that anyone can check it. No lender, vendor or AI company funds this work.
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denied since Jan 1, 2025 · counting live · Source: CFPB HMDA
Same federal guidelines. Same country.
One lender denies 6.37% — another 53.27%.
Observed FHA denial rates differ widely across lenders,
on the same public record, in the same year.
Free · 60 seconds · no SSN required
LIVE · One FHA application is denied every 2 minutes — next in 2:00
📕 NEW — The Black Hole Report 2025: every lender’s 97%+ denial zone, mapped — and the routes out. $49 →
● CLIMATE 54 · ⚖ THE DENIAL SUITE:
The Vintage (was it the year?) ·
The Denial Map → (was it the door?) ·
The Meter (what did the market do?) ·
Research reports
Questions nobody else can answer
🧩
Chrome extension NEW
See this metro's FHA denial record while you browse Zillow, Redfin or Realtor.com. Free, no tracking.
🎓
We put AI systems through an exam: four in July, eight in September NEW
Ten frozen questions with verifiable answers. Scores from 33% to 60%. Rubric published before the answers.
✅
Observed FHA denial rates by lender NEW
Not a sponsored list — the 2025 federal record. 98.2% down to 21.3%.
🗺️
Denial Rates by Metro NEW
319 metros. In Cleveland the doors run 6.4% to 80.1% — inside one city.
🧱
The Incomplete Wall NEW
At two lenders, "incomplete" is 3 of 4 denials. Market median: 1.2%.
🏗️
The Builder's Door NEW
When the builder owns the lender, the house is never the problem. You are.
📍
Same Lender, Different City NEW
loanDepot: 13.6% in Boise, 58.4% in Detroit. Same brand, same year.
⚡
Shock Beta
When rates moved, which desks slammed shut — and which barely blinked?
🔗
Statistical Twins
If your lender vanished tomorrow, who reads files exactly like them?
📊
3D Decision Surface
Your DTI sits on a cliff. Rotate the terrain and find the edge.
📐
The Findings
Today's denials predict tomorrow's defaults — two years out (r=0.618).
📖
Mortgage Dictionary
Cliffs, genes, black holes — 72 terms the industry never defined.
The Data Room
the complete 2025 federal record, indexed
Lenders
All 100 lenders, ranked44× spread
Why each lender says nothe DNA
Does the soft door cost more?r = −0.25
Geography
All 52 states, ranked2× spread
The door map, 15 biggest marketsstate × lender
Proof
Five myths vs. the record5/5 fail
AI vs. the data: the receiptarchived
Denied? Start here: The Denial Map · The Denial Map → → your year → today’s climate — a data point, not a verdict.