Prediction Model · HMDA 2018–2024

If Rates Change,
Who Survives?

Move the slider to simulate a rate scenario. The model predicts volume impact for each lender based on their historical rate sensitivity.

30-Year Mortgage Rate
6.9%
Current (baseline)
Predicted Volume Impact vs Current Baseline
What This Means for Borrowers
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Model based on 7 years of CFPB HMDA public data (2018–2024). Volume predictions use linear regression on refi sensitivity vs. rate environment. This is a probabilistic model, not a guarantee. Actual lender behavior depends on many factors not captured here. Not financial advice. Methodology →
The part almost nobody publishes free

Prices and rates are widely reported. Whether a lender says yes is not. In the complete 2025 federal record, denial rates across the 100 largest FHA lenders ran from 1.8% to 78.7% — same programme, same year.

And it is not simply who applies where: standardizing on state, loan amount, income, debt-to-income and loan-to-value, applicant mix explains only a 2.7× range in expected outcomes.

Which lenders approve most → Your metro → Denied? →

CFPB HMDA 2025, computed by FinanceRateCalc. Covers the highest-volume lenders published per market, not all lenders. Historical observations, not predictions. CC BY 4.0, not independently reproduced.

The Denial Dispatch
One finding a week from the federal mortgage record.
One chart, three paragraphs, every Saturday. Measured, not assumed.
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FinanceRateCalc · Independent analysis of the complete federal HMDA record · Measured, not assumed. · No lender or AI vendor funds or previews this work.