Behavioral Analysis · 2018–2024 · CFPB HMDA

Which Lenders Collapse
When Rates Rise?

7-year behavioral panel of 11 major lenders. Refi dependency, purchase resilience, and cycle sensitivity — derived from CFPB HMDA data.

Key Findings
🔴Freedom Mortgage (OFI 79.7) — most volatile lender in the dataset. Refi volume swung from 6,402 (2018) to 24,549 (2020) to 187 (2023). Extreme cycle dependency.
🔴PennyMac (OFI 75.2) — refi machine. 41,211 refi denials in 2020 vs 871 in 2023. When rates rise, their volume collapses.
🟢CrossCountry (OFI 31.3) — most stable lender. Purchase-focused across all 7 years. Least sensitive to rate cycles.
📈UWM (OFI 51.2) — broker channel resilience. Purchase volume grew from 8,330 (2018) to 27,694 (2024) despite rate environment.
⚠️Rocket (OFI 50.6) — refi machine transitioning. 111,618 refi denials in 2020, down to 3,595 in 2023. Adapting but still cycle-sensitive.
Lender Cycle Sensitivity Score
Refi Dependency Ratio — Year × Lender Heatmap
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