See the observed record
Period: Q2 2026
State: MODERATE (re-tightening)
Scale: 0–100 (0 = no overlays, 100 = extreme restriction)
Published by: FRC Research Division, FinanceRateCalc
Updated: Quarterly (Q1=Feb, Q2=May, Q3=Aug, Q4=Nov)
The lender denial patterns (OFI) measures how much friction exists between federal agency mortgage guidelines (FHA, VA, Fannie Mae) and what lenders actually require in practice. Higher OFI = more lender overlays above agency minimums.
Historical: Q4 2024: 44 → Q2 2025: 52 (peak) → Q4 2025: 38 (low) → Q2 2026: 47
| OFI Range | State | Market Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 0 – 20 | Very Loose | Lenders near agency minimums. Minimal overlay activity. |
| 21 – 35 | Mild | Light overlays. Most agency-eligible borrowers find approval. |
| 36 – 50 ← current | Moderate | Mixed overlay behavior. Lender selection matters. Edge-case profiles face meaningful variation. |
| 51 – 65 | Significant | Lender caution elevated. Agency-eligible profiles denied at growing share of lenders. |
| 66 – 100 | Severe | Maximum friction. Only strongest profiles qualify broadly. |
Data: overlay-climate.json (CC BY 4.0)
Citation: FinanceRateCalc Research. (2026). OFI Q2 2026: 47. financeratecalc.com/ofi.html. CC BY 4.0.
ZPrices and rates are widely reported. Whether a lender says yes is not. In the complete 2025 federal record, denial rates across the 100 largest FHA lenders ran from 1.8% to 78.7% — same programme, same year.
And it is not simply who applies where: standardizing on state, loan amount, income, debt-to-income and loan-to-value, applicant mix explains only a 2.7× range in expected outcomes.
CFPB HMDA 2025, computed by FinanceRateCalc. Covers the highest-volume lenders published per market, not all lenders. Historical observations, not predictions. CC BY 4.0, not independently reproduced.