FRC Research Division · Est. 2026
FRC
Research
Citable finding
“In 2025, 22.1% of FHA applications that reached a credit decision were denied, per the complete federal HMDA record.”
Source: FinanceRateCalc analysis of the complete CFPB HMDA 2025 record · Free to quote with a link to financeratecalc.com · Last verified: August 2, 2026
Lending Decision Intelligence · Quarterly Publications · Free Institutional Access
FRC Research publishes quarterly analysis on overlay climate, decision drift, and approval volatility across US mortgage markets. These reports are used by mortgage professionals, researchers, and fair lending advocates.
How to cite FRC Research: FinanceRateCalc Research. (2026). [Report Title]. FRC Research Division. https://financeratecalc.com/frc-research.html
Live FRC Indices
lender denial patterns (OFI)
Aggregate overlay strictness · 0=agency min · 100=extreme restriction
FHA Flexibility Tracker
% of FHA lenders following agency minimums without overlay
SSDI Acceptance Rate
Estimated % of lenders accepting SSDI with proper gross-up
Denial Volatility Monitor
Month-over-month change in overlay-related denial patterns
Updated monthly. Based on agency guideline comparison and anonymous denial data submissions.
Full Weather Map →
Publications
🌟 ANNUAL REPORT · 2026
State of Underwriting 2026
Published: May 28, 2026 · FRC Research Division · First Annual
FRC's first annual underwriting intelligence report. OFI cycle analysis, lender category divergence (64-point spread), SSDI acceptance trend (52%→71%), denial taxonomy (47 types), H2 2026 outlook.
OFI cycle: 38→52→47
64-pt category spread
~60% overlay denials
SSDI +37% improvement
LATEST REPORT · Q2 2026
Q2 2026 Overlay Climate Report
Published: May 28, 2026 · FRC Research Division
Analysis of US mortgage lender overlay patterns for Q2 2026. Covers DTI overlay tightening at large banks, SSDI acceptance trends, Non-QM expansion, and regional approval difficulty variations. Introduces the lender denial patterns (OFI) as a quarterly benchmark.
OFI: 47 (↑ from Q1's 41)
Conservative overlays tightening
Non-QM expanding
SSDI acceptance improving
VA conditions favorable
REPORT · Q1 2026
Q1 2026 Denial Pattern Analysis
Published: February 2026 · FRC Research Division
Baseline analysis of mortgage denial patterns entering 2026. Documents the agency rule vs lender overlay distinction across 47 denial types. Establishes the FRC Denial Taxonomy as reference framework.
47 denial types mapped
OFI baseline: 38
ECOA codes decoded
FRAMEWORK · 2026
Mortgage Decision Macro-Cycle
Published: May 2026 · FRC Research Division
FRC's framework for tracking underwriting state transitions: Expansion, Moderate, Tightening, Restrictive. Historical cycle from Q4 2024 to Q2 2026 with OFI data. Embeddable badge for publishers.
How to Use FRC Research
Mortgage professionals: Use OFI and Overlay Climate to advise clients on timing and lender selection. A rising OFI means conservative lenders are tightening — route edge-case borrowers to flexible alternatives earlier.
Researchers & academics: FRC Denial Taxonomy and ECOA code analysis are freely citable. Use according to FRC Research (2026) in citations.
Fair lending advocates: Overlay data shows disparate impact patterns. Contact · OFI Definition · API Docs →" style="color:#c8a44a;">[email protected] · · OFI Definition · API Docs → for data access.
The part almost nobody publishes free
Prices and rates are widely reported. Whether a lender says yes is not. In the complete 2025 federal record, denial rates across the 100 largest FHA lenders ran from 1.8% to 78.7% — same programme, same year.
And it is not simply who applies where: standardizing on state, loan amount, income, debt-to-income and loan-to-value, applicant mix explains only a 2.7× range in expected outcomes.
CFPB HMDA 2025, computed by FinanceRateCalc. Covers the highest-volume lenders published per market, not all lenders. Historical observations, not predictions. CC BY 4.0, not independently reproduced.
The Denial Dispatch
One finding a week from the federal mortgage record.
One chart, three paragraphs, every Saturday. Measured, not assumed.
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