OFI measures how much friction exists between federal agency mortgage guidelines and what lenders actually require. Higher OFI = more overlays above agency minimums. Updated quarterly.
| Period | OFI Value | State | Direction | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2024 | 44 | MODERATE | Baseline | — |
| Q2 2025 | 52 | ELEVATED | Peak tightening | +8 |
| Q4 2025 | 38 | LOW | Easing cycle | −14 |
| Q2 2026 ← current | 47 | MODERATE | Re-tightening | +9 |
The gap between what federal agencies (FHA, VA, Fannie Mae) require and what lenders actually demand. A borrower can meet agency minimums and still be denied due to lender overlays.
OFI is not an approval probability, a credit score, or a lender recommendation tool. It is an observational, behavioral, market-based friction indicator.
Regional, cohort-level, and denial-divergence breakdowns are planned for Q3 2026, after HMDA 2024 full dataset integration. Until then, OFI is one number.
OFI is published quarterly: Q1 (February), Q2 (May), Q3 (August), Q4 (November). Data sources: CFPB complaint database, HMDA 2024 annual data, LO outcome contributions.
Measures whether lenders are too loose or too tight relative to current home valuations. Positive = bubble risk. Negative = opportunity zone.
Note: Disconnect Index values prior to 2026 are retrospective calculations. "Would have signaled" — not live predictions at the time. Full data →