{
  "disconnect_index_version": "1.0",
  "description": "Measures divergence between market valuation (P/R) and lender behavior (OFI). Identifies whether overlay friction is market-driven or lender-driven.",
  "formula": "Disconnect = normalize(P/R_ratio) - normalize(OFI)",
  "interpretation": {
    "above_20": "BUBBLE RISK \u2014 Lenders too loose for current valuations",
    "10_to_20": "MILD DISCONNECT \u2014 Watch for correction",
    "minus_10_to_10": "ALIGNED \u2014 Lender behavior matches market",
    "minus_20_to_minus_10": "OPPORTUNITY \u2014 Lenders overcorrecting",
    "below_minus_20": "STRONG OPPORTUNITY \u2014 Significant lender overcorrection"
  },
  "historical": {
    "2018": {
      "ptr": 19.2,
      "ofi": 44,
      "disconnect": -54.5
    },
    "2019": {
      "ptr": 19.8,
      "ofi": 38,
      "disconnect": -17.9
    },
    "2020": {
      "ptr": 21.4,
      "ofi": 35,
      "disconnect": 20.7
    },
    "2021": {
      "ptr": 25.6,
      "ofi": 32,
      "disconnect": 100.0
    },
    "2022": {
      "ptr": 24.1,
      "ofi": 52,
      "disconnect": -14.3
    },
    "2023": {
      "ptr": 22.8,
      "ofi": 54,
      "disconnect": -43.8
    },
    "2024": {
      "ptr": 23.1,
      "ofi": 47,
      "disconnect": -7.2
    }
  },
  "current_q2_2026": {
    "ptr_estimated": 22.5,
    "ofi": 47.0,
    "disconnect": -16.6
  },
  "key_insight": "2021 was the clearest bubble-feeding signal: P/R at historic high (25.6) while OFI at historic low (32). Lenders were maximally loose in the most overvalued market. The Disconnect Index would have flagged this 6-12 months before the correction."
}