FHA mortgage insurance (MIP) is permanent on loans with less than 10% down. Conventional PMI cancels automatically at 80% LTV. This changes the entire long-term math.
On a $350,000 loan at 3.5% down:
FHA almost always costs more long-term if you plan to stay. The question is whether you qualify for conventional.
If you're on the fence, calculate when your conventional PMI would cancel (22% equity) and compare total insurance costs to that point. Most buyers hit this in 7-10 years depending on appreciation and paydown rate.
If you plan to sell or refinance before that point, the lower down payment of FHA may outweigh the higher ongoing cost. If you plan to stay 20+ years, avoid FHA MIP at all costs.
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🏦 Ask Zai Free → 🔍 Decode Denial LetterNot financial advice. Educational content based on 23 years of mortgage industry experience.
Prices and rates are widely reported. Whether a lender says yes is not. In the complete 2025 federal record, denial rates across the 100 largest FHA lenders ran from 1.8% to 78.7% — same programme, same year.
And it is not simply who applies where: standardizing on state, loan amount, income, debt-to-income and loan-to-value, applicant mix explains only a 2.7× range in expected outcomes.
CFPB HMDA 2025, computed by FinanceRateCalc. Covers the highest-volume lenders published per market, not all lenders. Historical observations, not predictions. CC BY 4.0, not independently reproduced.