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Credit-score thresholds are the visible half of qualifying. The other half is which lender receives your file — and that half is measurable. In the complete 2025 federal HMDA record (1,187,606 FHA applications that reached a credit decision), denial rates across the 100 largest FHA lenders ranged from 1.8% to 78.7%. Same federal program, same year: a 44× spread.

And it is not simply a matter of who applies where. Holding state, loan amount, income, debt-to-income and loan-to-value constant across 24,933 borrower-profile cells, applicant mix explains only a 2.9× range — while the observed spread stays 44×.

CFPB HMDA 2025, computed by FinanceRateCalc · decisioned = actions 1,2,3 · rates partly reflect applicant mix · historical observation, not a prediction about any individual application · free, CC BY 4.0.