Updated as data allows
Mortgage Market
Pulse
Market signal combining MBA Applications Index, 30-year rate momentum, OFI, and policy change detection. Not a prediction — a directional signal.
This Week's Market Signal
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⚠️ Policy Change Alerts This Week
Key Indicators
OFI (National)
47
MODERATE
Q2 2026
Building Permits
—
Leading indicator
Consumer Sentiment
—
University of Michigan
What This Week's Signal Means
For W2 borrowers
Low sensitivity to current conditions
For self-employed
Monitor OFI — 2.7× more sensitive
For FHA purchase
CrossCountry/Guild best historical fit
Rate trend
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Next update
When new data lands after MBA release
Data sources: FRED API (MMNRNSA MBA Index, MORTGAGE30US, PERMIT, ICSA, UMCSENT), updated as data allows. Market signal is a directional indicator, not a prediction. Not financial advice.
Methodology →
The part almost nobody publishes free
Prices and rates are widely reported. Whether a lender says yes is not. In the complete 2025 federal record, denial rates across the 100 largest FHA lenders ran from 1.8% to 78.7% — same programme, same year.
And it is not simply who applies where: standardizing on state, loan amount, income, debt-to-income and loan-to-value, applicant mix explains only a 2.7× range in expected outcomes.
CFPB HMDA 2025, computed by FinanceRateCalc. Covers the highest-volume lenders published per market, not all lenders. Historical observations, not predictions. CC BY 4.0, not independently reproduced.
The Denial Dispatch
One finding a week from the federal mortgage record.
One chart, three paragraphs, every Saturday. Measured, not assumed.
Get the Dispatch →