FR Decision Index — Primary Score
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FRDI = MMI(35%) + MTI(30%) + MSI(20%) + OFI(15%) · 0–100 · Confidence-adjusted
This Week's Broker Signal
BALANCED
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Market Composite Metrics
Income Type Approval Odds (ITAO)
Lender Aggressiveness Score (LAS) — Higher = More Approvals
| Lender | LAS Score | Signal | 2025 FHA Denial Rate |
|---|
Lender Opportunity Index (LOI) — Higher = Market Share Opportunity
| Lender | LOI Score | Signal |
|---|
Composite metrics derived from: OFI (FRED MORTGAGE30US, r = 0.90 in-sample (out-of-sample MAE 5.56 across 8 tested quarters)), MBA Weekly Index (MMNRNSA), HMDA 2018-2024 denial rates, AWS sensitivity coefficients. All metrics are directional signals, not predictions. Not financial advice. Methodology →
The part almost nobody publishes free
Prices and rates are widely reported. Whether a lender says yes is not. In the complete 2025 federal record, denial rates across the 100 largest FHA lenders ran from 1.8% to 78.7% — same programme, same year.
And it is not simply who applies where: standardizing on state, loan amount, income, debt-to-income and loan-to-value, applicant mix explains only a 2.7× range in expected outcomes.
CFPB HMDA 2025, computed by FinanceRateCalc. Covers the highest-volume lenders published per market, not all lenders. Historical observations, not predictions. CC BY 4.0, not independently reproduced.
The Denial Dispatch
One finding a week from the federal mortgage record.
One chart, three paragraphs, every Saturday. Measured, not assumed.
Get the Dispatch →
FinanceRateCalc · Independent analysis of the complete federal HMDA record · Measured, not assumed. · No lender or AI vendor funds or previews this work.