⚡ Quick Guide — This Week
✅ Submit Now
Credit Score700+
Income TypeW2 (salary)
DTI Ratio40% or below
Job History6+ months
Reserves3+ months
Example: Sarah — 750 FICO, $80K W2, 35% DTI, 10yr job history → Submit today.
⏳ Wait 2-3 Weeks
Credit Score650–680
Income TypeSSDI / Self-Employed
DTI Ratio45–50%
Job History3–6 months
Reserves1–3 months
Example: John — 670 FICO, SSDI income, 48% DTI → Wait. Market may open in 2-3 weeks.
Profile Examples — This Week
First-Time Buyer
✅ Submit
720 FICO · W2 · 38% DTI · Conventional
→ Strong profile, all lenders open
→ Strong profile, all lenders open
Self-Employed
⏳ Wait
660 FICO · 2yr tax returns · 44% DTI · FHA
→ Borderline. CrossCountry only if urgent.
→ Borderline. CrossCountry only if urgent.
SSDI Borrower
⏳ Wait
640 FICO · SSDI income · 46% DTI · FHA
→ 2-3 week hold. Check next signal.
→ 2-3 week hold. Check next signal.
Investor / Cash-Out
🚫 Hold
700 FICO · Investment property · Cash-out refi
→ Higher historical cash-out denial ratio lenders tightening now.
→ Higher historical cash-out denial ratio lenders tightening now.
VA Purchase
✅ Submit
680 FICO · W2 military · VA loan
→ VA channel less affected by OFI.
→ VA channel less affected by OFI.
Denied — Re-route
✅ Try Zai
Previously denied · Wrong lender
→ Run through Zai for re-routing.
→ Run through Zai for re-routing.
Why CAUTIOUS This Week?
📈30yr mortgage rate at 6.9% — lenders adding overlays to protect margins
📊
📉MBA application volume flat — lenders showing lower volume competition
🔄Regime: STABLE — no major shift expected in next 1-2 weeks
💡Confidence: 0.84 HIGH — all indicators agree, signal is reliable this week
Broker Strategies — CAUTIOUS Mode
Cherry-Pick Strong Files
Focus on 700+ FICO, W2, low DTI. These close faster and build your track record with lenders.
Use Lower Historical FHA Denial Rates
CrossCountry (5.5% denial) and Guild (7.1%) are least affected by current tightening. Route borderline FHA there.
Set a 3-Week Review
Hold borderline files. Check next week's signal. If FRDI drops to PROCEED, submit then — same file, better odds.
FAQ
How often does FRDI change?
When new data lands after MBA releases its weekly mortgage application data. Major rate moves can shift it mid-week.
Does FRDI replace my judgment?
No. FRDI is a directional signal based on historical patterns. Your knowledge of individual lender guidelines always takes priority. Use this as a starting filter, not a final decision.
What's the difference between CAUTIOUS and RESTRICTED?
CAUTIOUS (FRDI 35-55): Strong profiles go through, borderline files face headwinds. RESTRICTED (FRDI 55+): Even good profiles hit friction. Only submit your best files.
My client can't wait — what do I do?
Route to FHA specialists. CrossCountry and Guild maintain the lowest denial rates even in tight markets. Run the profile through Zai for the specific routing recommendation.
FRDI is a probabilistic market signal based on HMDA 2018-2024, FRED economic data, and OFI model (r = 0.90 in-sample (out-of-sample MAE 5.56 across 8 tested quarters)). Not a loan approval guarantee. Not financial advice. Individual lender guidelines vary. Always verify current overlays with lenders directly. Methodology →
The part almost nobody publishes free
Prices and rates are widely reported. Whether a lender says yes is not. In the complete 2025 federal record, denial rates across the 100 largest FHA lenders ran from 1.8% to 78.7% — same programme, same year.
And it is not simply who applies where: standardizing on state, loan amount, income, debt-to-income and loan-to-value, applicant mix explains only a 2.7× range in expected outcomes.
CFPB HMDA 2025, computed by FinanceRateCalc. Covers the highest-volume lenders published per market, not all lenders. Historical observations, not predictions. CC BY 4.0, not independently reproduced.
The Denial Dispatch
One finding a week from the federal mortgage record.
One chart, three paragraphs, every Saturday. Measured, not assumed.
Get the Dispatch →
FinanceRateCalc · Independent analysis of the complete federal HMDA record · Measured, not assumed. · No lender or AI vendor funds or previews this work.