Guild FHA Denial Rate (2025): the behavioral file

2025 FHA denial rate
8.6%
#2 of 11 major lenders · tightened +0.3pp since 2018
20182025
2018 rate
8.3%
Shock Beta
0/100
Macro sensitivity (OFI)
58.8

Shock profile: historically stable across cycles. What Shock Beta means →

The black-hole cell

The single deepest denial zone in Guild’s 2025 FHA record: DTI 38–40 × CLTV 100–105% → 81.8% denial (n=258). Files entering that coordinate historically did not come out. All lenders’ black holes, mapped →

Statistical relatives

Underwriting twins (similar decision patterns): UWM (90/100), CrossCountry (75/100). Behavioral opposites: PennyMac (64/100), Freedom (63/100). If Guild declined a file, its twins are statistically likely to read it the same way — the opposites are a different conversation. Full similarity engine →

What to do with this file

Does YOUR profile fit this door? Free routing → Denied by Guild? Run the Verdict — free → Compare all 11 lenders in one table →
Source: CFPB HMDA loan-level records, 2018–2025, FRC 11-lender panel; methodology at financeratecalc.com/methodology. Denial rates partly reflect applicant mix. Historical data observation; overlays are lawful; not a recommendation to use or avoid any lender; not financial, legal, or mortgage advice. FRC Intelligence.