CrossCountry denied 6.5% of its FHA applications in 2025 — rank #1 of the 100 largest FHA lenders (1 = lowest denial), from CFPB HMDA loan-level records (1,187,606 decisioned FHA applications in 2025).
Sharpest observed DTI step: at CLTV 70-79, denial moves from 0.8% at DTI 45 to 17.3% at DTI 46 — a +16.5 point jump across one integer of DTI. FHA program rules permit DTI well above this; the desk does not.
Sharpest observed CLTV step: at DTI 41, denial moves from 4.7% in the 70-79% band to 9.8% in the 80-84% band — +5.1 points on down payment alone.
Denial rates reflect applicant mix as well as underwriting strictness; overlays are lawful business decisions. Cells with n<50 excluded. Methodology
Shock profile: historically stable across cycles. What Shock Beta means →
The single deepest denial zone in CrossCountry’s 2025 FHA record: DTI 48–50 × CLTV 80–85% → 21.1% denial (n=71). Files entering that coordinate historically did not come out. All lenders’ black holes, mapped →
Underwriting twins (similar decision patterns): Rocket (77/100), Guild (75/100). Behavioral opposites: NewRez (31/100), Mr. Cooper (28/100). If CrossCountry declined a file, its twins are statistically likely to read it the same way — the opposites are a different conversation. Full similarity engine →
Across 8 verified coordinates, CrossCountry's observed outcomes stay broadly consistent with guideline expectations — the sharpest point is DTI 47 × CLTV 70-79 → 8.1%.
| DTI | CLTV band | Observed denial (2025) |
|---|---|---|
| 47 | 70-79 | 8.1% |
| 49 | 70-79 | 5.6% |
| 44 | 80-84 | 3.7% |
| 43 | 70-79 | 3.5% |
| 43 | 80-84 | 3.4% |
| 44 | 70-79 | 3.1% |
| 45 | 80-84 | 3.1% |
| 45 | 70-79 | 0.8% |
Cells with n<50 excluded. Part of the FRC Mortgage Decision Geometry Benchmark — a free ground-truth set for testing AI answers to mortgage questions. Machine-readable: ai-benchmark.json. Denial rates reflect applicant mix as well as underwriting; overlays are lawful.