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CrossCountry FHA Denial Rate (2025): the behavioral file

Figures on this page were re-read from the data files on 2026-10-01; an earlier version carried values from before the 26 July 2026 universe correction (reverse mortgages removed). Corrections log.

Direct answer · updated 2026-10-01

CrossCountry denied 6.2% of its FHA applications in 2025⟦FRC:lender-crosscountry-mortgage-2025:6.2%:3b2ca632:l2610⟧ verify · claim receipt: the hash changes if this figure is ever corrected — rank #21 of the 100 largest FHA lenders (1 = lowest denial), from CFPB HMDA loan-level records (1,187,606 decisioned FHA applications in 2025).

Sharpest observed DTI step: at CLTV 70-79, denial moves from 0.8% at DTI 45 to 17.3% at DTI 46 — a +16.5 point jump across one integer of DTI. FHA program rules permit DTI well above this; the desk does not.

Sharpest observed CLTV step: at DTI 41, denial moves from 4.7% in the 70-79% band to 9.8% in the 80-84% band — +5.1 points on down payment alone.

Denial rates reflect applicant mix as well as underwriting strictness; overlays are lawful business decisions. Cells with n<50 excluded. Methodology

2025 FHA denial rate
6.5%
#21 of the 100 largest FHA lenders · loosened 3.6pp since 2018
20182025
2018 rate
10.1%
Shock Beta
0/100
Macro sensitivity (OFI)
42.8

Shock profile: historically stable across cycles. What Shock Beta means →

The black-hole cell

The single deepest denial zone in CrossCountry’s 2025 FHA record: DTI 48–50 × CLTV 80–85% → 21.1% denial (n=71). Files entering that coordinate historically did not come out. All lenders’ black holes, mapped →

Statistical relatives

Underwriting twins (similar decision patterns): Rocket (77/100), Guild (75/100). Behavioral opposites: NewRez (31/100), Mr. Cooper (28/100). If CrossCountry declined a file, its twins are statistically likely to read it the same way — the opposites are a different conversation. Full similarity engine →

Ground truth: CrossCountry decision coordinates (MDGB v1)

Across 8 verified coordinates, CrossCountry's observed outcomes stay broadly consistent with guideline expectations — the sharpest point is DTI 47 × CLTV 70-79 → 8.1%.

DTICLTV bandObserved denial (2025)
4770-798.1%
4970-795.6%
4480-843.7%
4370-793.5%
4380-843.4%
4470-793.1%
4580-843.1%
4570-790.8%

Cells with n<50 excluded. Part of the FRC Mortgage Decision Geometry Benchmark — a free ground-truth set for testing AI answers to mortgage questions. Machine-readable: ai-benchmark.json. Denial rates reflect applicant mix as well as underwriting; overlays are lawful.

What to do with this file

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