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FRC Research · Real HMDA Data

Two doors.
Same you.
Different lender.

The lender you walk into changes your outcome more than your credit profile does. Enter your profile. See both doors.

2025 · 8,795 high-risk FHA applications · loan-level federal data

🟢
Mr. Cooper
—
denial rate for profiles like yours
🔴
Rocket Mortgage
—
denial rate for profiles like yours
Observed historical denial rates spectrum — same borrower, different lender
50% ← market midpoint → 50%
—
percentage point gap between the two doors
Same borrower. Same profile. Same year. Different door.
What this means for you
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Denial rates from CFPB HMDA loan-level 2025. High-risk profile (DTI 44+, CLTV 90+): Mr. Cooper 26.7% denial (n=1,073), Rocket Mortgage 91.2% denial (n=329). Mid-risk profile (DTI 36-43, CLTV 80-89): Mr. Cooper 9.7%, Rocket 37.8%. Rates reflect observed outcomes for borrowers with similar DTI and CLTV in public federal data. Credit score is masked in HMDA and cannot be controlled. This is statistical research on aggregate lender behavior — not financial advice or approval prediction.
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Prices and rates are widely reported. Whether a lender says yes is not. In the complete 2025 federal record, denial rates across the 100 largest FHA lenders ran from 1.8% to 78.7% — same programme, same year.

And it is not simply who applies where: standardizing on state, loan amount, income, debt-to-income and loan-to-value, applicant mix explains only a 2.7× range in expected outcomes.

Which lenders approve most → Your metro → Denied? →

CFPB HMDA 2025, computed by FinanceRateCalc. Covers the highest-volume lenders published per market, not all lenders. Historical observations, not predictions. CC BY 4.0, not independently reproduced.

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FinanceRateCalc · Independent analysis of the complete federal HMDA record · Measured, not assumed. · No lender or AI vendor funds or previews this work.