The 6.0% Refinance Reality
At 6.0%, refinancing only makes sense if you currently have a rate above 6.5-7%. If you locked in a rate below 6% in 2020-2021, do not refinance.
The real break-even math — not just "lower is better."
At 6.0%, refinancing only makes sense if you currently have a rate above 6.5-7%. If you locked in a rate below 6% in 2020-2021, do not refinance.
Prices and rates are widely reported. Whether a lender says yes is not. In the complete 2025 federal record, denial rates across the 100 largest FHA lenders ran from 1.8% to 78.7% — same programme, same year.
And it is not simply who applies where: standardizing on state, loan amount, income, debt-to-income and loan-to-value, applicant mix explains only a 2.7× range in expected outcomes.
CFPB HMDA 2025, computed by FinanceRateCalc. Covers the highest-volume lenders published per market, not all lenders. Historical observations, not predictions. CC BY 4.0, not independently reproduced.