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FRC Research · Shadow Approvals

Denied?
Your second door is open.

Tell us who denied you. We'll show you where borrowers like you got approved.

Classification
Your second door
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Approval rates from CFPB HMDA loan-level 2025. Based on observed outcomes for borrowers with similar DTI and CLTV profiles. Credit score is masked in HMDA and cannot be controlled. A Shadow Approval classification means your denial occurred in a market where materially lower denial rates were simultaneously observed elsewhere — not that approval is guaranteed anywhere. Statistical research, not financial advice.  |  Calculate your denial cost →
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Prices and rates are widely reported. Whether a lender says yes is not. In the complete 2025 federal record, denial rates across the 100 largest FHA lenders ran from 1.8% to 78.7% — same programme, same year.

And it is not simply who applies where: standardizing on state, loan amount, income, debt-to-income and loan-to-value, applicant mix explains only a 2.7× range in expected outcomes.

Which lenders approve most → Your metro → Denied? →

CFPB HMDA 2025, computed by FinanceRateCalc. Covers the highest-volume lenders published per market, not all lenders. Historical observations, not predictions. CC BY 4.0, not independently reproduced.

The Denial Dispatch
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One chart, three paragraphs, every Saturday. Measured, not assumed.
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FinanceRateCalc · Independent analysis of the complete federal HMDA record · Measured, not assumed. · No lender or AI vendor funds or previews this work.