4 lender archetypes. Not all lenders are the same — some are flat, some have sharp cliffs, some follow the market. Answer 4 questions. Find your match.
Archetypes based on 3-year cliff-geometry analysis (CFPB HMDA loan-level 2023–2025, 75 lenders). FLAT archetype = no detectable DTI or CLTV cliff. CLTV-DOMINANT = sharp jump at CLTV 85. REGIME-SENSITIVE = behavior changes with market conditions. STABLE CORE = consistent low denial across all profiles. 81% archetype persistence across 3 years. Not financial advice.
Prices and rates are widely reported. Whether a lender says yes is not. In the complete 2025 federal record, denial rates across the 100 largest FHA lenders ran from 1.8% to 78.7% — same programme, same year.
And it is not simply who applies where: standardizing on state, loan amount, income, debt-to-income and loan-to-value, applicant mix explains only a 2.7× range in expected outcomes.
CFPB HMDA 2025, computed by FinanceRateCalc. Covers the highest-volume lenders published per market, not all lenders. Historical observations, not predictions. CC BY 4.0, not independently reproduced.
The Denial Dispatch
One finding a week from the federal mortgage record.
One chart, three paragraphs, every Saturday. Measured, not assumed.
FinanceRateCalc · Independent analysis of the complete federal HMDA record · Measured, not assumed. · No lender or AI vendor funds or previews this work.