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FRC Intelligence · Geographic Analysis · 2025

The
Geographic Lottery

Texas: 2.2% FHA denial rate. Oklahoma: 25.0%. Same lenders, same federal guidelines — but 23 points apart. The state you live in is part of your mortgage outcome. You didn't choose it. But you should know it.

Find your state's Mortgage Score
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All states — 2025 FHA Mortgage Score

MS = national average (15.1%) minus state denial rate. Higher = more borrower-friendly market.

StateDenial %MSGrade
Geography is part of your outcome. Lender choice is too.
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Data: CFPB HMDA loan-level 2025, 6 major FHA lenders, all states with ≥500 FHA applications. Mortgage Score (MS) = national average denial rate (15.1%) minus state denial rate. Positive = below national average. Borrower profile composition is not held constant across states — state scores reflect aggregate market conditions, not individual predictions. Statistical research, not financial advice.

Related: Denial Disparity Report →  |  Market That Doesn't React →
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