8 years of real FHA mortgage denial data from CFPB HMDA. the 100 largest FHA lenders. All 51 states. Every data point is a real federal record — not estimates.
⚠️ Educational Only — Historical denial rates. Not predictive. Not financial advice. Individual outcomes vary. Source: CFPB HMDA Public Data 2018–2025.
Most Consistent Winner
CrossCountry
5.5–8.6% every year since 2018
Biggest Improvement
PennyMac
52.8% → 23.6% (−29pp since 2018)
Biggest Deterioration
NewRez
48.9% → 53.3% — volatile & worsening
National Avg Trend
↑ Tightening
~24% (2020) → ~26% (2025)
Lender Trends
State Trends
Full Data Table
FHA Denial Rate by Lender — 2018 to 2025
State FHA Denial Rate Trend
vs National Average
Complete Lender Data — All 8 Years (FHA Denial Rate %)
Prices and rates are widely reported. Whether a lender says yes is not. In the complete 2025 federal record, denial rates across the 100 largest FHA lenders ran from 1.8% to 78.7% — same programme, same year.
And it is not simply who applies where: standardizing on state, loan amount, income, debt-to-income and loan-to-value, applicant mix explains only a 2.7× range in expected outcomes.
CFPB HMDA 2025, computed by FinanceRateCalc. Covers the highest-volume lenders published per market, not all lenders. Historical observations, not predictions. CC BY 4.0, not independently reproduced.
The Denial Dispatch
One finding a week from the federal mortgage record.
One chart, three paragraphs, every Saturday. Measured, not assumed.
FinanceRateCalc · Independent analysis of the complete federal HMDA record · Measured, not assumed. · No lender or AI vendor funds or previews this work.