Real HMDA data covering every mortgage application filed in the U.S. — 2018 through 2025. Conventional & FHA loans only. Source: FFIEC.
| State | Denial Rate | Approved | Denied | Total Apps | vs 2018 | 6-Year Trend |
|---|
Data source: FFIEC HMDA Dynamic National Loan Application Register (LAR), all reporting institutions. Includes Conventional (loan_type=1) and FHA (loan_type=2) loans only; VA and USDA excluded. Actions: Originated (action_taken=1) and Denied (action_taken=3). 2019 data unavailable (corrupted source file). Raw data: ffiec.gov/hmda/hmdaflat.htm · CFPB HMDA Overview
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Prices and rates are widely reported. Whether a lender says yes is not. In the complete 2025 federal record, denial rates across the 100 largest FHA lenders ran from 1.8% to 78.7% — same programme, same year.
And it is not simply who applies where: standardizing on state, loan amount, income, debt-to-income and loan-to-value, applicant mix explains only a 2.7× range in expected outcomes.
CFPB HMDA 2025, computed by FinanceRateCalc. Covers the highest-volume lenders published per market, not all lenders. Historical observations, not predictions. CC BY 4.0, not independently reproduced.