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FREEDOM SHOCK BETA 100/100GUILD SHOCK BETA 0/100ROCKET CLIFF +54.9pp @ CLTV 85MR. COOPER CLIFF +1.7ppDENIAL→DELINQUENCY r=+0.618 · 2-YR LEADRECESSION PARADOX r=−0.696SLOOS vs REALITY r=−0.150SAME PROFILE 26.7% vs 91.2% DENIALloanDepot↔NewRez SIMILARITY 94/1001,187,606 FHA RECORDS · CFPB HMDAFREEDOM SHOCK BETA 100/100GUILD SHOCK BETA 0/100ROCKET CLIFF +54.9pp @ CLTV 85MR. COOPER CLIFF +1.7ppDENIAL→DELINQUENCY r=+0.618 · 2-YR LEADRECESSION PARADOX r=−0.696SLOOS vs REALITY r=−0.150SAME PROFILE 26.7% vs 91.2% DENIALloanDepot↔NewRez SIMILARITY 94/1001,187,606 FHA RECORDS · CFPB HMDA
FRC Research · CFPB HMDA 2025

An FHA borrower was denied
every 2 minutes today.

Where these numbers come from, and how to check them
Method is published, not proprietary. Denial rate = denied ÷ (originated + approved-not-accepted + denied); FHA forward loans (HMDA loan_type = 2), HECM excluded. Every figure carries a machine-readable claim passport with the source hash.
Peer-visible method paper (DOI) Eight-year panel (DOI) Measurement boundaries (SSRN) Full methodology Claim passports with hashes How our tables reconcile Public corrections log What we tested and found nothing
Independent status, stated plainly: this is an independent re-aggregation of the public CFPB HMDA record, not an official CFPB or FFIEC output, and no figure here has yet been independently reproduced. The underlying data is free under CC BY 4.0 so that anyone can check it. No lender, vendor or AI company funds this work.
—
denied since Jan 1, 2025 · counting live · Source: CFPB HMDA

Same federal guidelines. Same country.
One lender denies 6.37% — another 53.27%.

The difference is not the borrower.
It's the lender.

Would your file pass elsewhere? →
Free · 60 seconds · no SSN required
or watch the full clock →
LIVE · One FHA application is denied every 2 minutes — next in 2:00
📕 NEW — The Black Hole Report 2025: every lender’s 97%+ denial zone, mapped — and the routes out. $49 →
● CLIMATE 54 · ⚖ THE DENIAL SUITE: The Vintage (was it the year?) · The Verdict (was it the door?) · The Meter (what did the market do?) · Research reports
Questions nobody else can answer
🧩
Chrome extension NEW
See this metro's FHA denial record while you browse Zillow, Redfin or Realtor.com. Free, no tracking.
🎓
We put 4 AI systems through an exam NEW
Ten frozen questions with verifiable answers. Scores from 33% to 60%. Rubric published before the answers.
✅
Which FHA lenders approve most NEW
Not a sponsored list — the 2025 federal record. 98.2% down to 21.3%.
🗺️
Denial Rates by Metro NEW
320 metros. In Cleveland the doors run 6.4% to 80.1% — inside one city.
🧱
The Incomplete Wall NEW
At two lenders, "incomplete" is 3 of 4 denials. Market median: 1.2%.
🏗️
The Builder's Door NEW
When the builder owns the lender, the house is never the problem. You are.
📍
Same Lender, Different City NEW
loanDepot: 13.6% in Boise, 58.4% in Detroit. Same brand, same year.
⚡
Shock Beta
When rates moved, which desks slammed shut — and which barely blinked?
🔗
Statistical Twins
If your lender vanished tomorrow, who reads files exactly like them?
📊
3D Decision Surface
Your DTI sits on a cliff. Rotate the terrain and find the edge.
📐
The Findings
Today's denials predict tomorrow's defaults — two years out (r=0.618).
📖
Mortgage Dictionary
Cliffs, genes, black holes — 72 terms the industry never defined.
The Data Room
the complete 2025 federal record, indexed
Lenders
All 100 lenders, ranked44× spread
Why each lender says nothe DNA
Does the soft door cost more?r = −0.25
Geography
All 52 states, ranked2× spread
The door map, 15 biggest marketsstate × lender
The small-loan penalty46.9%
Proof
Five myths vs. the record5/5 fail
AI vs. the data: the receiptarchived
Direct answers, citable23
Denied? Start here: The Denial Map · Your file → your year → today’s climate — a data point, not a verdict.
The map almost nobody publishes free

FHA denial rates, state by state.

Utah and Idaho refuse 15.0% of decisioned FHA applications. Hawaii refuses 31.4%. Same federal program — tap your state.

15.0%
31.4%
Tap a state for its record — click through for the full state page

CFPB HMDA 2025 · decisioned applications · full table with loan-size splits →

The wall of 100 doors

Every large FHA lender in America, colored by how often it says no.

One federal program. One year. 1,187,606 decisions. Hover a door — or find yours.

1.8%
78.7% denial rate
Hover any door to see its record · click to open its profile

CFPB HMDA 2025 · decisioned applications (actions 1,2,3) · rates partly reflect applicant mix · historical observation, not a prediction — see the full table →

How the system works

Three variables decide an FHA application before anyone reads your character. All three are measurable in the public federal record — and one of them dwarfs the others.

Variable 01 · Where you apply
15.0% → 31.4%
Utah → Hawaii · 2× by state
Same loan, same profile, different state. Your zip code is underwriting you before anyone opens the file.
State map →
Variable 02 · Which door — the big one
1.8% → 78.7%
Flat Branch → AmeriSave · 44× by lender
The 100 largest FHA lenders, one federal program, one year. Which door you knock on moves your odds more than any other variable measured here.
All 100 lenders →
Variable 03 · And it holds
8 years
2018–2025 · every federal filing
The hierarchy of doors barely moves year to year. This is structure, not noise — which is why last year's record is usable this year.
The research →
How to use it

The Denial Map™

Four steps, in order, if you have been denied — or want to avoid it.

01
Decode
Get the stated reason in writing — it is your right under federal law — then read it against that lender's own reason distribution. “Incomplete” means something very different at a door where it is 1.8% of denials than at one where it is 75.2%.
Reason fingerprints →
02
Year
Place the denial in its credit climate. A file refused in a tight year is not the same file in a loose one, and the record shows which year you were in.
The climate index →
03
Door
Compare lenders on observed outcomes, not advertising — nationally, in your metro, and by loan size. This is where the 44× lives.
Your metro's doors →
04
Reapply
Take the same file to a door whose record fits it. Consider applying to a second lender in parallel: if another door approves substantially the same file, you have learned the denial was about the door.
The full framework →
Open The Denial Map →
Free · no sign-up · no approval predictions
Pricing
The data is free. The tools are optional.
Free forever
$0
no sign-up
✓ 100 largest lenders, 2025
✓ All 184 metro lender gaps
✓ 50-state tables
✓ 8-year lender panel
✓ Every dataset (CC BY 4.0)
✓ Papers, receipts, corrections log
✓ MCP server & API for agents
FOUNDING EDITION
Metro Lender Report Card
$29
one page, client-ready
✓ The five high-volume FHA doors
✓ Observed rates + volumes
✓ Small-loan penalty
✓ 8-year pattern per lender
✓ Quarterly updates through 2027
Get the Cleveland card →
another metro? request yours
Research reports: Mortgage Black Hole $49 · Condo Guide $9.99
No lender pays us · no ads · no affiliates · no lead generation · no approval predictions
▵ this sky is a year of FHA applications · the red ones don't make it →
The Denial Dispatch
One finding a week from the federal mortgage record.
One chart, three paragraphs, every Saturday. Measured, not assumed.
Get the Dispatch →
AI Accuracy Index The Door Effect The Denial Map Open Data About 184 Metro Gaps Evidence Navigator Hallucination Files Press Newsletter
FinanceRateCalc · Independent analysis of the complete federal HMDA record · Measured, not assumed. · No lender or AI vendor funds or previews this work.