{
  "schema": "https://financeratecalc.com/mortgage-decision-cycle.html",
  "published": "2026-05-28",
  "citation": "FinanceRateCalc Research. (2026). FRC Underwriting Cycle Data. financeratecalc.com/underwriting-cycle.json. CC BY 4.0.",
  "license": "CC BY 4.0",
  "states": {
    "EXPANSION": {
      "ofi_range": "0-40",
      "description": "Lenders near agency minimums. Borrower-friendly.",
      "current": false
    },
    "MODERATE": {
      "ofi_range": "40-55",
      "description": "Mixed behavior. Program selection matters.",
      "current": true
    },
    "TIGHTENING": {
      "ofi_range": "55-70",
      "description": "Overlay compression. Edge-case borrowers at risk.",
      "current": false
    },
    "RESTRICTIVE": {
      "ofi_range": "70-100",
      "description": "Maximum friction. Only strong profiles qualify.",
      "current": false
    }
  },
  "current": {
    "state": "MODERATE",
    "ofi": 47,
    "period": "Q2 2026",
    "direction": "re-tightening"
  },
  "transitions": [
    {
      "from_period": "Q4-2024",
      "to_period": "Q2-2025",
      "from_state": "MODERATE",
      "to_state": "TIGHTENING",
      "driver": "Secondary market tightening"
    },
    {
      "from_period": "Q2-2025",
      "to_period": "Q4-2025",
      "from_state": "TIGHTENING",
      "to_state": "EXPANSION",
      "driver": "Rate expectation shift, liquidity improvement"
    },
    {
      "from_period": "Q4-2025",
      "to_period": "Q2-2026",
      "from_state": "EXPANSION",
      "to_state": "MODERATE",
      "driver": "Conservative bank overlay re-tightening"
    }
  ]
}