{
  "signal_validity_version": "1.0",
  "date": "2026-06-01",
  "total_signal_score": 63.2,
  "verdict": "\u2705 MODERATE SIGNAL \u2014 OFI has meaningful incremental value",
  "tests": {
    "ablation": {
      "core_signal_features": [
        "mortgage_rate",
        "cc_delinquency",
        "mbs_spread"
      ],
      "results": {
        "mortgage_rate": {
          "mae_without": 2.8,
          "drop": 1.32,
          "sensitivity": "CORE SIGNAL"
        },
        "cc_delinquency": {
          "mae_without": 2.26,
          "drop": 0.782,
          "sensitivity": "CORE SIGNAL"
        },
        "mbs_spread": {
          "mae_without": 1.85,
          "drop": 0.367,
          "sensitivity": "CORE SIGNAL"
        },
        "homeownership": {
          "mae_without": 1.47,
          "drop": -0.009,
          "sensitivity": "REDUNDANT"
        },
        "rental_vacancy": {
          "mae_without": 1.51,
          "drop": 0.027,
          "sensitivity": "REDUNDANT"
        },
        "housing_vacancy": {
          "mae_without": 1.48,
          "drop": -0.005,
          "sensitivity": "REDUNDANT"
        },
        "fha_denial_rate": {
          "mae_without": 1.44,
          "drop": -0.042,
          "sensitivity": "REDUNDANT"
        },
        "mba_index": {
          "mae_without": 1.47,
          "drop": -0.012,
          "sensitivity": "REDUNDANT"
        },
        "price_to_rent": {
          "mae_without": 1.49,
          "drop": 0.004,
          "sensitivity": "REDUNDANT"
        },
        "mortgage_delinquency": {
          "mae_without": 1.5,
          "drop": 0.021,
          "sensitivity": "REDUNDANT"
        }
      },
      "score": 60
    },
    "granger_causality": {
      "ofi_leads_denial_rate": {
        "r": 0.679,
        "p": 0.0
      },
      "ofi_leads_mba_index": {
        "r": -0.873,
        "p": 0.0
      },
      "verdict": "LEADING INDICATOR",
      "score": 70
    },
    "orthogonality": {
      "macro_only_r2": 0.946,
      "full_model_r2": 0.974,
      "incremental_r2": 0.028,
      "score": 50
    },
    "incremental_power": {
      "macro_only_mae": 1.76,
      "full_ofi_mae": 1.48,
      "improvement": 0.28,
      "improvement_pct": 15.7,
      "score": 65
    },
    "regime_stability": {
      "cv": 0.37,
      "regime_maes": {
        "Low rate (2019-2021)": {
          "mae": 1.07,
          "dir_correct": 7
        },
        "Rate shock (2022)": {
          "mae": 2.51,
          "dir_correct": 3
        },
        "High rate (2023)": {
          "mae": 1.4,
          "dir_correct": 3
        },
        "Normalizing (2024)": {
          "mae": 1.19,
          "dir_correct": 2
        }
      },
      "score": 80
    }
  }
}