{
  "title": "OFI Development Roadmap",
  "current": {
    "version": "3.0",
    "status": "LIVE",
    "quarter": "Q2 2026",
    "components": [
      "Stage 1: Ridge Regression (28 quarterly points, LOO MAE=1.79)",
      "Stage 2: FRED Weekly HF Modifier (STLFSI4, REDBOOK, SOFR)",
      "Overlay Intelligence Database (7 lenders, FHA/Conv/VA rules)",
      "Extended Backtest (8 critical periods 2019-2025)",
      "Stress Test Matrix (17 scenarios, range 33.5-69.9)"
    ]
  },
  "v3_1": {
    "version": "3.1",
    "status": "PLANNED",
    "quarter": "Q3 2026",
    "components": [
      "FRED live integration active (FRED_API_KEY configured)",
      "PDF Pipeline: automated overlay rule extraction",
      "Sub-indices: OFI-LO, OFI-RV, OFI-EC (HMDA Q3 2026 data)",
      "Denial Decoder feedback loop \u2192 overlay database auto-update",
      "ML activation at 100 denial cases"
    ]
  },
  "v4_0": {
    "version": "4.0 \u2014 Access Layer",
    "status": "PLANNED",
    "quarter": "Q4 2026",
    "concept": "OFI currently measures lender overlay friction. v4.0 adds structural market access barriers that exist even when lender overlays are zero.",
    "new_dimensions": {
      "Insurance_Crisis_Index": {
        "description": "Measures insurance availability by state/ZIP. In Florida/California, lenders deny loans on properties that can't be insured \u2014 regardless of borrower profile.",
        "data_sources": [
          "AM Best insurer withdrawal data",
          "State DOI reports",
          "NFIP flood zone maps"
        ],
        "fred_proxies": [
          "None \u2014 direct source required"
        ],
        "ofi_mechanism": "No insurance = no lender approval = structural denial, not overlay"
      },
      "Rate_Lockout_Index": {
        "description": "Measures inventory suppression from rate lock-in effect. 2020-2021 buyers at 2.5-3% refuse to sell \u2192 FHA borrowers can't find eligible properties.",
        "data_sources": [
          "FRED: USHVAC (housing vacancy)",
          "NAR existing home sales",
          "Redfin days-on-market"
        ],
        "fred_proxies": [
          "USHVAC",
          "HOUST (housing starts)"
        ],
        "ofi_mechanism": "Low inventory \u2192 bidding wars \u2192 cash buyers win \u2192 FHA borrowers excluded by market, not lender"
      },
      "Institutional_Competition_Index": {
        "description": "Tracks share of homes purchased by institutional investors (all-cash). FHA borrowers can't compete with Blackstone/Invitation Homes.",
        "data_sources": [
          "ATTOM investor purchase data",
          "CoreLogic investor share",
          "HMDA cash purchase tracking"
        ],
        "fred_proxies": [
          "RHORUSQ156N (homeownership rate)"
        ],
        "ofi_mechanism": "Higher institutional share \u2192 lower FHA success rate \u2192 market-level exclusion"
      },
      "Doom_Spending_Signal": {
        "description": "Gen Z homeownership intent collapse. Lower FHA application volume from young cohort compresses lender revenue \u2192 overlay paradox (may ease or tighten).",
        "data_sources": [
          "MBA purchase index by age",
          "CFPB consumer surveys",
          "Redfin first-time buyer share"
        ],
        "fred_proxies": [
          "REDBOOK (retail spending)",
          "Consumer confidence"
        ],
        "ofi_mechanism": "Demand collapse from young cohort changes lender competitive dynamics"
      },
      "YieldStar_Rental_Pressure": {
        "description": "Algorithmic rent inflation traps renters \u2014 can't save for down payment, DTI worsens, mortgage access deteriorates.",
        "data_sources": [
          "FRED: CUUR0000SEHA (rent CPI)",
          "Zillow rent index",
          "CoStar rental vacancy"
        ],
        "fred_proxies": [
          "CUUR0000SEHA"
        ],
        "ofi_mechanism": "High rent \u2192 low savings \u2192 high DTI \u2192 denied even at low-overlay lenders"
      }
    },
    "formula": "OFI v4.0 = Stage1_Ridge + Stage2_HF_Modifier + Access_Layer_Score",
    "access_layer_formula": "Access_Score = f(insurance_availability, inventory_suppression, institutional_competition, rental_burden)",
    "activation_criteria": [
      "Homeownership rate data collected quarterly (FRED)",
      "Insurance availability index built (3+ states)",
      "Institutional buyer share data secured",
      "At least 2 quarters of parallel tracking vs v3.0"
    ],
    "estimated_mae_improvement": "Expected LOO MAE improvement: 1.79 \u2192 ~1.2 (estimated)"
  },
  "v5_0": {
    "version": "5.0 \u2014 ZIP-Level OFI",
    "status": "VISION",
    "quarter": "2027",
    "concept": "Overlay Friction Heat Map \u2014 ZIP code level OFI. First real-time underwriting behavior map of America.",
    "components": [
      "HMDA ZIP-level denial patterns",
      "Insurance availability by ZIP",
      "Institutional buyer concentration by ZIP",
      "Interactive map visualization"
    ]
  }
}