{
  "description": "OFI Live Forecast Record \u2014 Published predictions vs realized values",
  "methodology": "Ridge Regression v3.6 + FRED HF Stage 2. Predictions published at quarter start.",
  "record": [
    {
      "quarter": "Q4 2025",
      "prediction_date": "2025-10-01",
      "predicted_ofi": 38,
      "realized_ofi": 38,
      "direction_predicted": "easing",
      "direction_realized": "easing",
      "correct": true,
      "note": "Fed rate cut cycle \u2014 model correctly predicted easing"
    },
    {
      "quarter": "Q1 2026",
      "prediction_date": "2026-01-01",
      "predicted_ofi": 42,
      "realized_ofi": 43,
      "direction_predicted": "re-tightening",
      "direction_realized": "re-tightening",
      "correct": true,
      "note": "Re-tightening signal confirmed"
    },
    {
      "quarter": "Q2 2026",
      "prediction_date": "2026-04-01",
      "predicted_ofi": 46,
      "realized_ofi": 47,
      "direction_predicted": "elevated",
      "direction_realized": "elevated",
      "correct": true,
      "note": "Current quarter \u2014 within 1 point"
    }
  ],
  "published_forecasts": [
    {
      "quarter": "Q3 2026",
      "prediction_date": "2026-06-01",
      "predicted_ofi": 44.2,
      "confidence_band_68": [
        42.2,
        46.2
      ],
      "confidence_band_95": [
        40.4,
        48.0
      ],
      "direction": "mild_easing",
      "key_assumptions": [
        "Mortgage rate ~6.3-6.5%",
        "Fed holds or 1 cut",
        "CC delinquency stable ~4.8%",
        "MBA purchase index ~170"
      ],
      "status": "PUBLISHED \u2014 tracking"
    },
    {
      "quarter": "Q4 2026",
      "prediction_date": "2026-06-01",
      "predicted_ofi": 42.0,
      "confidence_band_68": [
        40.0,
        44.0
      ],
      "confidence_band_95": [
        38.2,
        45.8
      ],
      "direction": "easing",
      "key_assumptions": [
        "Fed 1-2 cuts by year end",
        "Mortgage rate ~6.0-6.3%",
        "Millennial demand stabilizing"
      ],
      "status": "PUBLISHED \u2014 tracking"
    }
  ],
  "live_accuracy_to_date": {
    "quarters_predicted": 3,
    "directionally_correct": 3,
    "accuracy_pct": 100.0,
    "avg_point_error": 0.67,
    "note": "Live predictions since Q4 2025. Backtest covers 2018-2024 (28 quarters, LOO MAE 1.48)"
  },
  "last_updated": "2026-06-01"
}