{
  "extended_backtest_version": "1.0",
  "date_run": "2026-05-31",
  "periods_tested": 8,
  "extended_mae": 5.56,
  "loo_training_mae": 1.79,
  "within_5_points_pct": 50.0,
  "within_10_points_pct": 87.5,
  "market_coverage": "2019-2025: low rate, pandemic, peak looseness, rate shock, SVB crisis, peak rate, easing",
  "results": [
    {
      "period": "Sep 2019 \u2014 Repo Market Shock",
      "date": "2019-09-15",
      "actual_ofi": 37,
      "stage1": 37.5,
      "stage2_modifier": 0.4,
      "final_prediction": 37.9,
      "error": 0.9,
      "note": "Overnight repo rate spiked \u2014 SOFR stress signal captured"
    },
    {
      "period": "Apr 2020 \u2014 Pandemic Shock",
      "date": "2020-04-15",
      "actual_ofi": 36,
      "stage1": 41.3,
      "stage2_modifier": 9.3,
      "final_prediction": 50.6,
      "error": 14.6,
      "note": "Fed to zero but operational tightening via volume surge"
    },
    {
      "period": "Oct 2021 \u2014 Peak Looseness",
      "date": "2021-10-15",
      "actual_ofi": 31,
      "stage1": 34.8,
      "stage2_modifier": -0.8,
      "final_prediction": 34.0,
      "error": 3.0,
      "note": "Lowest overlay environment \u2014 lenders competing aggressively"
    },
    {
      "period": "Oct 2022 \u2014 Rate Shock Peak",
      "date": "2022-10-15",
      "actual_ofi": 58,
      "stage1": 60.6,
      "stage2_modifier": 0.7,
      "final_prediction": 61.3,
      "error": 3.3,
      "note": "Fastest rate increase in history \u2014 overlays spiked"
    },
    {
      "period": "Mar 2023 \u2014 SVB Crisis",
      "date": "2023-03-15",
      "actual_ofi": 55,
      "stage1": 56.3,
      "stage2_modifier": 4.3,
      "final_prediction": 60.7,
      "error": 5.7,
      "note": "Banking liquidity crisis \u2014 stress index correctly captured"
    },
    {
      "period": "May 2024 \u2014 Peak Rate",
      "date": "2024-05-15",
      "actual_ofi": 48,
      "stage1": 54.4,
      "stage2_modifier": -0.8,
      "final_prediction": 53.6,
      "error": 5.6,
      "note": "Highest rate but calm liquidity \u2014 model correctly separates"
    },
    {
      "period": "Q4 2024 \u2014 Rate Cut Start",
      "date": "2024-10-15",
      "actual_ofi": 44,
      "stage1": 46.5,
      "stage2_modifier": 0.0,
      "final_prediction": 46.5,
      "error": 2.5,
      "note": "Fed cutting \u2014 easing begins"
    },
    {
      "period": "Q2 2025 \u2014 Easing Period",
      "date": "2025-06-15",
      "actual_ofi": 38,
      "stage1": 46.8,
      "stage2_modifier": 0.0,
      "final_prediction": 46.8,
      "error": 8.8,
      "note": "Market briefly eased \u2014 OFI at 4-year low"
    }
  ]
}