{
  "source": "CFPB HMDA Data Browser \u2014 real data, not estimates",
  "extracted": "2026-05-30",
  "data": [
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "originated": 7732289,
      "denied": 2552640,
      "avg_rate": 4.54,
      "total": 10284929,
      "denial_rate": 24.8
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "originated": 9344813,
      "denied": 2536776,
      "avg_rate": 3.94,
      "total": 11881589,
      "denial_rate": 21.4
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "originated": 14637334,
      "denied": 2886263,
      "avg_rate": 3.11,
      "total": 17523597,
      "denial_rate": 16.5
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "originated": 15091528,
      "denied": 2950191,
      "avg_rate": 2.96,
      "total": 18041719,
      "denial_rate": 16.4
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "originated": 8406350,
      "denied": 2500211,
      "avg_rate": 5.34,
      "total": 10906561,
      "denial_rate": 22.9
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "originated": 5710399,
      "denied": 2037094,
      "avg_rate": 6.81,
      "total": 7747493,
      "denial_rate": 26.3
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "originated": 6176052,
      "denied": 2099966,
      "avg_rate": 6.72,
      "total": 8276018,
      "denial_rate": 25.4
    }
  ],
  "insights": {
    "structural_baseline_year": 2019,
    "structural_baseline_denial_rate": 21.4,
    "current_denial_rate_2024": 25.4,
    "friction_above_baseline_pp": 4.0,
    "national_rss": 2.73,
    "denial_floor_structural": "~2M applications denied even in best years \u2014 structural overlay",
    "volume_peak": "2021 \u2014 15.1M originated",
    "volume_trough": "2023 \u2014 5.7M originated (62% drop)",
    "denial_count_trough": "2023 \u2014 2.0M (only 31% drop vs volume 62% drop)"
  },
  "ofi_calibration": {
    "hmda_signal": "ELEVATED",
    "2019_baseline": 21.4,
    "2024_actual": 25.4,
    "excess_friction_pp": 4.0,
    "ziya_ofi_q2_2026": 47,
    "hmda_confirms": true
  }
}