{
 "contract_version": "0.1",
 "passport_id": "frc:claim:door-effect-38pct-2026",
 "canonical_claim": {
  "template": "In 2025 FHA decisions, lender identity was associated with {value} of the EXPLAINABLE variation in denial outcomes (McFadden R2 0.171\u21920.276), on observable federal-record characteristics.",
  "required_fields": [
   "period",
   "population",
   "metric_scope",
   "association_not_causation",
   "observable_data_limit"
  ]
 },
 "required_qualifiers": {
  "period": "2025",
  "population": "decisioned FHA applications (859,090)",
  "metric_scope": "share of explainable variation",
  "association_not_causation": true,
  "observable_data_limit": "HMDA contains no credit scores"
 },
 "does_not_establish": [
  "lenders CAUSED 38% of denials",
  "38% of every individual denial is lender-driven",
  "a borrower would be approved by switching lenders",
  "unlawful conduct by any lender"
 ],
 "forbidden_transformations": [
  "causal_attribution",
  "individual_prediction",
  "personalized_lender_recommendation",
  "legal_conclusion"
 ],
 "rule": "Free text is the OUTPUT of evidence, not its input. Certify before you write.",
 "test_vectors": [
  {
   "id": "pass-canonical",
   "proposed_use": {
    "metric_scope": "explainable_variation",
    "causal_assertion": false
   },
   "expected_verdict": "pass"
  },
  {
   "id": "fail-causality",
   "proposed_use": {
    "causal_assertion": true
   },
   "expected_verdict": "block",
   "reason_code": "CAUSALITY_NOT_ESTABLISHED"
  },
  {
   "id": "fail-denominator",
   "proposed_use": {
    "metric_scope": "all_denials"
   },
   "expected_verdict": "block",
   "reason_code": "DENOMINATOR_AND_CAUSALITY_ERROR"
  },
  {
   "id": "fail-personal",
   "proposed_use": {
    "individual_prediction": true
   },
   "expected_verdict": "block",
   "reason_code": "INDIVIDUAL_PREDICTION_PROHIBITED"
  }
 ]
}