{
 "publisher": "FinanceRateCalc",
 "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "citation": "Primary data: CFPB HMDA 2025. Derived figures: Yetis, Z. (2026), FinanceRateCalc. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21575105",
 "verification_note": "No figure in this file has been independently reproduced. Specification for checking any of them: https://financeratecalc.com/reconciliation.html. If a figure is wrong it is corrected in public with attribution: https://financeratecalc.com/corrections.html",
 "generated": "2026-07-27",
 "claim_count": 12,
 "claims": [
  {
   "id": "national-denial-rate",
   "claim": "National FHA denial rate, 2025",
   "value": 22.08,
   "unit": "percent",
   "scope": "United States",
   "universe": "FHA applications (loan_type 2) reaching a credit decision (action_taken 1,2,3), excluding reverse mortgages; denial = action 3; CFPB HMDA 2025",
   "n": 1187606,
   "source_page": "https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-top-100.html",
   "method": "https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html",
   "dataset_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.21575105",
   "verification_status": "reproducible; not independently reproduced",
   "as_of": "2026-07-27"
  },
  {
   "id": "universe-size",
   "claim": "Decisioned FHA applications in 2025",
   "value": 1187606,
   "unit": "applications",
   "scope": "United States",
   "universe": "FHA applications (loan_type 2) reaching a credit decision (action_taken 1,2,3), excluding reverse mortgages; denial = action 3; CFPB HMDA 2025",
   "n": 1187606,
   "source_page": "https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html",
   "method": "https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html",
   "dataset_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.21575105",
   "verification_status": "reproducible; not independently reproduced",
   "as_of": "2026-07-27",
   "note": "29,691 reverse mortgages excluded following a correction on 2026-07-26"
  },
  {
   "id": "lender-spread-low",
   "claim": "Lowest denial rate among the 100 largest FHA lenders",
   "value": 1.8,
   "unit": "percent",
   "scope": "FLAT BRANCH MORTGAGE, INC.",
   "universe": "FHA applications (loan_type 2) reaching a credit decision (action_taken 1,2,3), excluding reverse mortgages; denial = action 3; CFPB HMDA 2025",
   "n": 1187606,
   "source_page": "https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-top-100.html",
   "method": "https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html",
   "dataset_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.21575105",
   "verification_status": "reproducible; not independently reproduced",
   "as_of": "2026-07-27"
  },
  {
   "id": "lender-spread-high",
   "claim": "Highest denial rate among the 100 largest FHA lenders",
   "value": 78.7,
   "unit": "percent",
   "scope": "AMERISAVE MORTGAGE COMPANY",
   "universe": "FHA applications (loan_type 2) reaching a credit decision (action_taken 1,2,3), excluding reverse mortgages; denial = action 3; CFPB HMDA 2025",
   "n": 1187606,
   "source_page": "https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-top-100.html",
   "method": "https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html",
   "dataset_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.21575105",
   "verification_status": "reproducible; not independently reproduced",
   "as_of": "2026-07-27"
  },
  {
   "id": "lender-spread-ratio",
   "claim": "Ratio between highest and lowest denial rate, 100 largest FHA lenders",
   "value": 44,
   "unit": "times",
   "scope": "100 largest FHA lenders",
   "universe": "FHA applications (loan_type 2) reaching a credit decision (action_taken 1,2,3), excluding reverse mortgages; denial = action 3; CFPB HMDA 2025",
   "n": 1187606,
   "source_page": "https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-top-100.html",
   "method": "https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html",
   "dataset_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.21575105",
   "verification_status": "reproducible; not independently reproduced",
   "as_of": "2026-07-27"
  },
  {
   "id": "applicant-mix-range",
   "claim": "Range in expected denial rates explained by applicant mix after standardizing on state, loan amount, income, DTI and LTV",
   "value": 2.7,
   "unit": "times",
   "scope": "100 largest FHA lenders",
   "universe": "FHA applications (loan_type 2) reaching a credit decision (action_taken 1,2,3), excluding reverse mortgages; denial = action 3; CFPB HMDA 2025",
   "n": 1187606,
   "source_page": "https://financeratecalc.com/adjusted-denial-rates.html",
   "method": "https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html",
   "dataset_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.21575105",
   "verification_status": "reproducible; not independently reproduced",
   "as_of": "2026-07-27",
   "note": "observed spread remains far wider; rank correlation raw vs adjusted 0.919"
  },
  {
   "id": "incomplete-median",
   "claim": "Median share of 'incomplete application' among cited denial reasons",
   "value": 1.8,
   "unit": "percent",
   "scope": "100 largest FHA lenders",
   "universe": "FHA applications (loan_type 2) reaching a credit decision (action_taken 1,2,3), excluding reverse mortgages; denial = action 3; CFPB HMDA 2025",
   "n": 1187606,
   "source_page": "https://financeratecalc.com/the-incomplete-wall.html",
   "method": "https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html",
   "dataset_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.21575105",
   "verification_status": "reproducible; not independently reproduced",
   "as_of": "2026-07-27",
   "note": "volume-weighted share across the same lenders is 17.6 percent; the two answer different questions"
  },
  {
   "id": "incomplete-max",
   "claim": "Highest share of 'incomplete application' among cited denial reasons",
   "value": 75.2,
   "unit": "percent",
   "scope": "Carrington Mortgage Services LLC",
   "universe": "FHA applications (loan_type 2) reaching a credit decision (action_taken 1,2,3), excluding reverse mortgages; denial = action 3; CFPB HMDA 2025",
   "n": 1187606,
   "source_page": "https://financeratecalc.com/the-incomplete-wall.html",
   "method": "https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html",
   "dataset_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.21575105",
   "verification_status": "reproducible; not independently reproduced",
   "as_of": "2026-07-27"
  },
  {
   "id": "dti-median",
   "claim": "Median share of debt-to-income among cited denial reasons",
   "value": 40.3,
   "unit": "percent",
   "scope": "100 largest FHA lenders",
   "universe": "FHA applications (loan_type 2) reaching a credit decision (action_taken 1,2,3), excluding reverse mortgages; denial = action 3; CFPB HMDA 2025",
   "n": 1187606,
   "source_page": "https://financeratecalc.com/fha-loan-denied-now-what.html",
   "method": "https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html",
   "dataset_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.21575105",
   "verification_status": "reproducible; not independently reproduced",
   "as_of": "2026-07-27"
  },
  {
   "id": "small-loan-penalty-max",
   "claim": "Largest state ratio of small-loan to large-loan denial rate",
   "value": 4.45,
   "unit": "times",
   "scope": "ID",
   "universe": "FHA applications (loan_type 2) reaching a credit decision (action_taken 1,2,3), excluding reverse mortgages; denial = action 3; CFPB HMDA 2025",
   "n": 1187606,
   "source_page": "https://financeratecalc.com/salary-vs-denial-risk-by-state.html",
   "method": "https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html",
   "dataset_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.21575105",
   "verification_status": "reproducible; not independently reproduced",
   "as_of": "2026-07-27",
   "note": "53.4% under $150K versus 12.0% at $250K or more"
  },
  {
   "id": "metro-spread-max",
   "claim": "Widest spread between high-volume lenders inside one metro",
   "value": 73.7,
   "unit": "percentage points",
   "scope": "Cleveland, OH",
   "universe": "FHA applications (loan_type 2) reaching a credit decision (action_taken 1,2,3), excluding reverse mortgages; denial = action 3; CFPB HMDA 2025",
   "n": 1187606,
   "source_page": "https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-by-metro.html",
   "method": "https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html",
   "dataset_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.21575105",
   "verification_status": "reproducible; not independently reproduced",
   "as_of": "2026-07-27",
   "note": "6.4% at CROSSCOUNTRY MORTGAGE, LLC to 80.1% at AMERISAVE MORTGAGE COMPANY"
  },
  {
   "id": "metro-spread-median",
   "claim": "Median spread between softest and hardest high-volume lender, metros with 2,000+ decisioned applications",
   "value": 22.2,
   "unit": "percentage points",
   "scope": "121 US metros",
   "universe": "FHA applications (loan_type 2) reaching a credit decision (action_taken 1,2,3), excluding reverse mortgages; denial = action 3; CFPB HMDA 2025",
   "n": 1187606,
   "source_page": "https://financeratecalc.com/apply-to-multiple-mortgage-lenders.html",
   "method": "https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html",
   "dataset_doi": "10.5281/zenodo.21575105",
   "verification_status": "reproducible; not independently reproduced",
   "as_of": "2026-07-27"
  }
 ],
 "evidence_corpus": {
  "data_doi": "https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21575105",
  "mirrors": "https://huggingface.co/FinanceRateCalc",
  "reference_implementation": "https://github.com/financeratecalc/financeratecalc.github.io/blob/main/scripts/reference_implementation.py",
  "mcp_server": "https://financeratecalc.com/mcp-server.html",
  "methodology": "https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html",
  "glossary": "https://financeratecalc.com/glossary.html",
  "catalog": "https://financeratecalc.com/data-catalog.html",
  "corrections": "https://financeratecalc.com/corrections.html",
  "reconciliation": "https://financeratecalc.com/reconciliation.html",
  "machine_guidance": "https://financeratecalc.com/llms.txt",
  "papers": "SSRN abstract 7156938 (under review)"
 }
}