{
 "generated": "2026-09-12",
 "model": "conditional-door-v1.1",
 "peer_definition": "Peers are the other lenders inside the same published cell: same state, loan-amount band, income band, DTI band and CLTV band, same program (FHA forward, 2025), same decisioned universe. The cell rate includes the lender itself, which attenuates the difference.",
 "weighting": "Both reported: cell-equal mean (each cell counts once) and decision-weighted mean (cells weighted by the lender decisions inside them).",
 "multiple_testing": "All lenders meeting the thresholds are published, not a selected example. CLTV bands are the pre-existing published cell definition, not chosen after seeing results. A within-lender permutation test (1,000 shuffles of a lender own cell differences across its bands) is reported per lender.",
 "boundaries": [
  "Observed cell comparison, not underwriting causality.",
  "Not evidence of discrimination or legal violation.",
  "Never a prediction about an individual application.",
  "Cells require 40 decisions; lender rows 30; bands at least 5 cells."
 ],
 "lenders": [
  {
   "name": "United Wholesale Mortgage",
   "bands": {
    "u80": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 14.2,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 13.8,
     "cells": 129,
     "decisions": 7083,
     "ci95": [
      13.1,
      15.2
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 98
    },
    "80-90": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -1.3,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -1.8,
     "cells": 39,
     "decisions": 2257,
     "ci95": [
      -3.4,
      0.8
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 38
    },
    "90-95": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -3.5,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -3.5,
     "cells": 42,
     "decisions": 2591,
     "ci95": [
      -5.2,
      -1.7
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 19
    },
    "95-96.5": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 1.7,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 2.0,
     "cells": 334,
     "decisions": 32960,
     "ci95": [
      1.2,
      2.1
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 70
    },
    "96.5p": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -36.6,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -36.2,
     "cells": 19,
     "decisions": 1058,
     "ci95": [
      -41.8,
      -31.3
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 0
    }
   },
   "swing_pp": 50.8,
   "permutation_p": 0.0,
   "flip_region": {
    "lower_band": "under 80% CLTV",
    "upper_band": "80-90% CLTV",
    "direction": "soft_to_strict",
    "edge_lower_band_pp": 14.2,
    "edge_upper_band_pp": -1.3,
    "supporting_cells": 168,
    "decision_count": 9340,
    "point_threshold_available": false,
    "interpretation": "Band-level observational transition. The published cells band CLTV, so the sign change can be located between bands and never at a point. This is not a policy cutoff and not an approval prediction."
   }
  },
  {
   "name": "ROCKET MORTGAGE",
   "bands": {
    "u80": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 2.0,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 1.7,
     "cells": 371,
     "decisions": 18058,
     "ci95": [
      1.3,
      2.8
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 63
    },
    "80-90": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -12.1,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -14.5,
     "cells": 5,
     "decisions": 214,
     "ci95": [
      -22.2,
      -1.9
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 40
    },
    "90-95": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -5.3,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -5.4,
     "cells": 7,
     "decisions": 319,
     "ci95": [
      -9.7,
      -1.0
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 29
    },
    "95-96.5": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -4.3,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -4.0,
     "cells": 129,
     "decisions": 8185,
     "ci95": [
      -5.2,
      -3.5
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 17
    }
   },
   "swing_pp": 14.1,
   "permutation_p": 0.0,
   "flip_region": {
    "lower_band": "under 80% CLTV",
    "upper_band": "80-90% CLTV",
    "direction": "soft_to_strict",
    "edge_lower_band_pp": 2.0,
    "edge_upper_band_pp": -12.1,
    "supporting_cells": 376,
    "decision_count": 18272,
    "point_threshold_available": false,
    "interpretation": "Band-level observational transition. The published cells band CLTV, so the sign change can be located between bands and never at a point. This is not a policy cutoff and not an approval prediction."
   }
  },
  {
   "name": "Lennar Mortgage, LLC",
   "bands": {
    "95-96.5": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -5.1,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -5.9,
     "cells": 110,
     "decisions": 15658,
     "ci95": [
      -6.2,
      -4.0
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 20
    },
    "96.5p": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -15.4,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -13.5,
     "cells": 9,
     "decisions": 405,
     "ci95": [
      -29.3,
      -1.4
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 11
    }
   },
   "swing_pp": 10.3,
   "permutation_p": 0.003,
   "flip_region": null
  },
  {
   "name": "DHI Mortgage Company, LTD.",
   "bands": {
    "80-90": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -1.1,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -1.5,
     "cells": 7,
     "decisions": 299,
     "ci95": [
      -4.5,
      2.3
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 29
    },
    "90-95": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 2.9,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 3.1,
     "cells": 8,
     "decisions": 306,
     "ci95": [
      0.9,
      4.9
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 88
    },
    "95-96.5": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -4.2,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -2.7,
     "cells": 182,
     "decisions": 23582,
     "ci95": [
      -5.2,
      -3.2
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 23
    },
    "96.5p": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -5.7,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -7.4,
     "cells": 9,
     "decisions": 445,
     "ci95": [
      -11.1,
      -0.4
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 33
    }
   },
   "swing_pp": 8.6,
   "permutation_p": 0.03,
   "flip_region": {
    "lower_band": "80-90% CLTV",
    "upper_band": "90-95% CLTV",
    "direction": "strict_to_soft",
    "edge_lower_band_pp": -1.1,
    "edge_upper_band_pp": 2.9,
    "supporting_cells": 15,
    "decision_count": 605,
    "point_threshold_available": false,
    "interpretation": "Band-level observational transition. The published cells band CLTV, so the sign change can be located between bands and never at a point. This is not a policy cutoff and not an approval prediction."
   }
  },
  {
   "name": "Ruoff Mortgage Company",
   "bands": {
    "95-96.5": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 3.2,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 3.0,
     "cells": 5,
     "decisions": 182,
     "ci95": [
      1.0,
      5.4
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 100
    },
    "96.5p": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 7.3,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 7.2,
     "cells": 8,
     "decisions": 329,
     "ci95": [
      5.6,
      9.0
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 100
    }
   },
   "swing_pp": 4.1,
   "permutation_p": 0.023,
   "flip_region": null
  },
  {
   "name": "PENNYMAC LOAN SERVICES LLC",
   "bands": {
    "u80": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 3.3,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 3.0,
     "cells": 15,
     "decisions": 596,
     "ci95": [
      0.7,
      5.8
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 73
    },
    "95-96.5": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -0.7,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -0.4,
     "cells": 8,
     "decisions": 401,
     "ci95": [
      -3.8,
      2.4
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 50
    }
   },
   "swing_pp": 4.0,
   "permutation_p": 0.083,
   "flip_region": {
    "lower_band": "under 80% CLTV",
    "upper_band": "95-96.5% CLTV",
    "direction": "soft_to_strict",
    "edge_lower_band_pp": 3.3,
    "edge_upper_band_pp": -0.7,
    "supporting_cells": 23,
    "decision_count": 997,
    "point_threshold_available": false,
    "interpretation": "Band-level observational transition. The published cells band CLTV, so the sign change can be located between bands and never at a point. This is not a policy cutoff and not an approval prediction."
   }
  },
  {
   "name": "Kind Lending, LLC",
   "bands": {
    "95-96.5": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -10.4,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -10.6,
     "cells": 15,
     "decisions": 1027,
     "ci95": [
      -12.6,
      -8.1
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 0
    },
    "96.5p": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -7.1,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -6.6,
     "cells": 5,
     "decisions": 215,
     "ci95": [
      -16.7,
      2.6
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 40
    }
   },
   "swing_pp": 3.3,
   "permutation_p": 0.347,
   "flip_region": null
  },
  {
   "name": "NEW AMERICAN FUNDING, LLC.",
   "bands": {
    "95-96.5": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 4.1,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 4.1,
     "cells": 6,
     "decisions": 260,
     "ci95": [
      3.2,
      4.9
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 100
    },
    "96.5p": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 5.9,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 6.2,
     "cells": 12,
     "decisions": 543,
     "ci95": [
      3.9,
      7.8
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 100
    }
   },
   "swing_pp": 1.8,
   "permutation_p": 0.685,
   "flip_region": null
  },
  {
   "name": "CROSSCOUNTRY MORTGAGE, LLC",
   "bands": {
    "95-96.5": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 6.3,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 6.6,
     "cells": 67,
     "decisions": 3226,
     "ci95": [
      5.3,
      7.2
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 97
    },
    "96.5p": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 7.8,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 8.2,
     "cells": 19,
     "decisions": 778,
     "ci95": [
      5.8,
      9.7
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 100
    }
   },
   "swing_pp": 1.5,
   "permutation_p": 0.161,
   "flip_region": null
  },
  {
   "name": "MOVEMENT MORTGAGE, LLC",
   "bands": {
    "95-96.5": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 5.7,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 5.8,
     "cells": 10,
     "decisions": 402,
     "ci95": [
      4.0,
      7.4
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 100
    },
    "96.5p": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 7.1,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 6.7,
     "cells": 10,
     "decisions": 434,
     "ci95": [
      5.0,
      9.2
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 100
    }
   },
   "swing_pp": 1.4,
   "permutation_p": 0.335,
   "flip_region": null
  },
  {
   "name": "CMG MORTGAGE INC",
   "bands": {
    "95-96.5": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 5.6,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 6.2,
     "cells": 29,
     "decisions": 1622,
     "ci95": [
      3.5,
      7.8
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 86
    },
    "96.5p": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 6.9,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 7.2,
     "cells": 17,
     "decisions": 842,
     "ci95": [
      5.1,
      8.8
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 94
    }
   },
   "swing_pp": 1.3,
   "permutation_p": 0.421,
   "flip_region": null
  },
  {
   "name": "loanDepot.com LLC",
   "bands": {
    "u80": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -7.7,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -7.9,
     "cells": 39,
     "decisions": 1478,
     "ci95": [
      -10.5,
      -4.8
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 23
    },
    "95-96.5": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": -9.0,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": -10.2,
     "cells": 89,
     "decisions": 6562,
     "ci95": [
      -10.9,
      -7.1
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 18
    }
   },
   "swing_pp": 1.3,
   "permutation_p": 0.48,
   "flip_region": null
  },
  {
   "name": "GUILD MORTGAGE COMPANY",
   "bands": {
    "95-96.5": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 6.0,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 6.0,
     "cells": 30,
     "decisions": 1363,
     "ci95": [
      4.6,
      7.5
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 100
    },
    "96.5p": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 6.7,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 6.7,
     "cells": 35,
     "decisions": 1427,
     "ci95": [
      5.0,
      8.5
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 91
    }
   },
   "swing_pp": 0.7,
   "permutation_p": 0.538,
   "flip_region": null
  },
  {
   "name": "FAIRWAY INDEPENDENT MORT CORP",
   "bands": {
    "95-96.5": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 4.9,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 4.8,
     "cells": 5,
     "decisions": 182,
     "ci95": [
      2.0,
      7.8
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 100
    },
    "96.5p": {
     "cell_equal_mean_pp": 5.4,
     "decision_weighted_mean_pp": 6.2,
     "cells": 15,
     "decisions": 606,
     "ci95": [
      2.4,
      8.4
     ],
     "share_soft_side": 87
    }
   },
   "swing_pp": 0.5,
   "permutation_p": 0.867,
   "flip_region": null
  }
 ],
 "robustness": {
  "bootstrap_flip_location": {
   "method": "2,000 bootstrap resamples of a lender own cell differences within each band; we record where the sign change lands.",
   "UWM": {
    "u80_to_80_90": 0.88,
    "80_90_to_90_95": 0.12
   },
   "Rocket": {
    "u80_to_80_90": 0.99,
    "80_90_to_90_95": 0.01
   },
   "reading": "The flip location is stable, but it is an estimated transition between published bands, not an observed policy threshold. We do not claim 80% is anyone policy line."
  },
  "negative_control": {
   "method": "The same peer-adjusted comparison computed across income bands, where no leverage-driven flip should appear.",
   "UWM": {
    "income_swing_pp": 4.6,
    "cltv_swing_pp": 50.7
   },
   "Rocket": {
    "income_swing_pp": 8.9,
    "cltv_swing_pp": 14.1
   },
   "reading": "If the leverage pattern were an artefact of cell selection, a comparable swing should appear on income. For the largest case it is eleven times smaller."
  },
  "shrinkage": {
   "method": "Empirical-Bayes shrinkage of each band mean toward the lender overall mean, weighted by cell count.",
   "UWM_96_5p": {
    "raw_pp": -36.6,
    "shrunk_pp": -34.0,
    "cells": 19
   },
   "UWM_u80": {
    "raw_pp": 14.2,
    "shrunk_pp": 14.2,
    "cells": 129
   },
   "Rocket_80_90": {
    "raw_pp": -12.1,
    "shrunk_pp": -8.0,
    "cells": 5,
    "note": "Thin band; the shrunk value is the one to read."
   }
  },
  "leave_one_state_out": {
   "method": "Drop each state in turn and recompute the widest band gap.",
   "UWM_gap_range_pp": [
    48.0,
    58.9
   ],
   "full_sample_pp": 50.8,
   "states_tested": 29,
   "reading": "No single state carries the result; removing the largest state leaves it at 48 points."
  },
  "not_possible": {
   "continuous_cltv_curve": "The published cells band CLTV, so a continuous gap curve cannot be estimated from this file. It would require loan-level data, which is not what we publish."
  }
 },
 "field_policy": {
  "removed_field": "flip_threshold",
  "reason": "The name implied a point estimate the banded data cannot support. Replaced by flip_region with point_threshold_available set to false.",
  "forbidden_readings": [
   "approval likelihood",
   "policy cutoff",
   "which lender will approve this file",
   "a lender denies applications above X% leverage"
  ],
  "required_label": "band-level observational pattern"
 },
 "temporal_boundary": {
  "status": "not_identified",
  "hypothesis": "The same lender, in the same observable loan conditions, could show a different peer-adjusted gap in different periods \u2014 a lender x condition x period interaction, not a claim that lenders lend more at month end.",
  "why_untestable_here": "The public HMDA record carries activity_year only. Application date and action-taken date are withheld from the public file for privacy reasons, so no month, quarter or decision date exists to interact with. Nothing in our published cells has a finer time resolution than the year.",
  "what_would_be_needed": [
   "lender LEI",
   "application or decision date, or at least month/quarter",
   "state or metro",
   "loan amount band",
   "income band",
   "DTI band",
   "CLTV band",
   "action taken",
   "loan type",
   "decision count per cell-period"
  ],
  "design_if_data_arrives": "Start with one lender, two CLTV bands and four pre-specified periods rather than sweeping all 1,086 cells. Test the lender x condition x period term. Required robustness: cell-equal and decision-weighted results, minimum period-cell support, period permutation, leave-one-period-out, leave-one-state-out, multiple-testing correction, lender mix standardisation, and a negative control.",
  "publication_rule": "No calendar claim is published from year-level data. If a dated source becomes available, the finding would be phrased as an observational temporal interaction and would not identify a calendar policy, a causal mechanism or any individual outcome.",
  "related": "This is the same class of limit described in SSRN 7423798: the record cannot answer a question its fields do not contain."
 }
}