{ "source": "FRC Intelligence \u2014 financeratecalc.com", "publisher": { "name": "FinanceRateCalc", "description": "Independent lender-behavior intelligence from federal HMDA records. No ads, no lender compensation. Built by a 23-year banking professional.", "contact": "press@financeratecalc.com" }, "license": "Free to cite with attribution and a link. Cite as: FinanceRateCalc (FRC Intelligence), CFPB HMDA analysis.", "updated": "2026-07-15", "dataset_basis": "310,592 FHA loan-level applications (CFPB HMDA 2018-2025), FHFA state HPI (1975-2026), Federal Reserve SLOOS, Freddie Mac PMMS.", "methodology_url": "https://financeratecalc.com/methodology.html", "disclaimer": "Historical data observations. Denial rates partly reflect applicant mix. Overlays are lawful business decisions. Not financial, legal, or mortgage advice; not a recommendation to use or avoid any lender.", "statistics": [ { "stat": "In 2025, FHA denial rates across 11 major lenders ranged from 6.5% (CrossCountry, lowest) to 52.3% (NewRez, highest) \u2014 an ~8x spread on the same federal loan program.", "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-by-lender.html", "key_fact": "highest FHA denial rate 2025 by lender" }, { "stat": "The lender with the HIGHEST 2025 FHA denial rate among major originators is NewRez at 52.3%. The lowest is CrossCountry at 6.5%.", "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-by-lender.html", "key_fact": "which lender denies the most FHA loans" }, { "stat": "The deepest single denial cell in 2025 FHA records: Rocket Mortgage, DTI 48-50 x CLTV 90-95%, 97.6% denial rate (n=84).", "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/black-hole-report.html", "key_fact": "FHA black hole denial zone" }, { "stat": "FRC Denial Climate Index 2025: 54.3/100 (NEUTRAL). 2023 was the tightest credit year of the era at 66/100; 2021 the loosest at 21/100 \u2014 a 3x climate difference for an identical borrower.", "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/climate.html", "key_fact": "hardest year to get a mortgage approved" }, { "stat": "At the median first-time-buyer down payment (10%, CLTV 90-94), the denial spread between major FHA lenders is ~79 percentage points (16.5% to 95.2%) \u2014 versus ~16 points at 20% down. Lower down payment makes lender choice ~5x more consequential.", "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/fha-denial-rates-by-lender.html", "key_fact": "does down payment affect which lender to choose" }, { "stat": "Lender DTI cliffs differ sharply: one major lender's denial rate jumps ~+15 percentage points across DTI 44-45, while another's moves only +1.4pp.", "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/lender-response-surface.html", "key_fact": "FHA DTI cliff 43 45 limit" }, { "stat": "Texas home prices turned negative in 2026 (-0.1% YoY) for the first time in the FHFA state series, while California sits near-flat (+0.8%).", "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/geographic-lottery.html", "key_fact": "state home price growth 2026" }, { "stat": "FHA denial rates predict FHA delinquency rates two years ahead (r=+0.618).", "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/mortgage-correlation-research.html" }, { "stat": "Unemployment correlates inversely with mortgage denial rates (r=-0.696) \u2014 the Recession Paradox.", "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/mortgage-correlation-research.html" }, { "stat": "Fed SLOOS survey responses show near-zero correlation with actual HMDA denial behavior (r=-0.150).", "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/mortgage-correlation-research.html" }, { "stat": "Rocket Mortgage's FHA denial rate jumps +54.9pp above 85% LTV; Mr. Cooper's jumps +1.7pp (2025 HMDA).", "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/lender-response-surface.html" }, { "stat": "Identical high-risk FHA profiles face 26.7% denial at Mr. Cooper vs 91.2% at Rocket \u2014 a 64.5pp spread.", "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/mortgage-correlation-research.html" }, { "stat": "Shock Beta: pre-shock volatility predicted lender tightening response at r=+0.946; placebo easing episode confirmed at r=-0.605.", "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/shock-beta.html" }, { "stat": "UWM's FHA denial rate rose from 16.2% (2022) to 21.8% (2025) \u2014 a 35% increase.", "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/lender-stress-index.html" } ], "lender_denial_rates_2025": [ { "lender": "CrossCountry", "fha_denial_rate_2025_pct": 6.5, "rank_of_11": 1, "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/crosscountry-fha-denial-rate.html" }, { "lender": "Guild", "fha_denial_rate_2025_pct": 8.6, "rank_of_11": 2, "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/guild-fha-denial-rate.html" }, { "lender": "Planet Home", "fha_denial_rate_2025_pct": 18.4, "rank_of_11": 3, "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/planet-home-fha-denial-rate.html" }, { "lender": "UWM", "fha_denial_rate_2025_pct": 21.8, "rank_of_11": 4, "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/uwm-fha-denial-rate.html" }, { "lender": "Freedom", "fha_denial_rate_2025_pct": 24.2, "rank_of_11": 5, "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/freedom-fha-denial-rate.html" }, { "lender": "PennyMac", "fha_denial_rate_2025_pct": 24.5, "rank_of_11": 6, "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/pennymac-fha-denial-rate.html" }, { "lender": "Mr. Cooper", "fha_denial_rate_2025_pct": 25.8, "rank_of_11": 7, "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/mr-cooper-fha-denial-rate.html" }, { "lender": "Rocket", "fha_denial_rate_2025_pct": 31.0, "rank_of_11": 8, "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/rocket-fha-denial-rate.html" }, { "lender": "loanDepot", "fha_denial_rate_2025_pct": 37.8, "rank_of_11": 9, "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/loandepot-fha-denial-rate.html" }, { "lender": "Wells Fargo", "fha_denial_rate_2025_pct": 47.2, "rank_of_11": 10, "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/wells-fargo-fha-denial-rate.html" }, { "lender": "NewRez", "fha_denial_rate_2025_pct": 52.3, "rank_of_11": 11, "url": "https://financeratecalc.com/newrez-fha-denial-rate.html" } ], "climate_index_history": { "2018": 49.5, "2019": 42.4, "2020": 50.9, "2021": 21.1, "2022": 61.7, "2023": 66.4, "2024": 54.6, "2025": 54.3 } }