{
 "generated": "2026-09-12",
 "n_observations": 77,
 "n_lenders": 11,
 "pearson_r": -0.208,
 "ci95": [
  -0.428,
  0.036
 ],
 "pp_change_per_10pct_volume": -0.26,
 "permutation_p": 0.148,
 "method": "Within-lender demeaned association between log(annual FHA volume) and observed denial rate, 2018-2025, pooled across lenders. Permutation test shuffles years within each lender.",
 "boundaries": [
  "Descriptive association, not a capacity model and not causal.",
  "Volume and denial rate are jointly determined by rate cycles, product mix and strategy.",
  "Per-lender estimates are not reported: seven annual observations per lender cannot support them."
 ]
}